RE:oops i accidentally saved my previous post prematurelyDepends on the time frame.
At this point, each quarter provides the step on which to predict the next quarter.
I have a penciled in estimate of funds flow for Q1. It will be adjusted based on the results disclosed today. This number gets firmer as the number of days remaining in the quarter declines, and the oil price for each day is historic, rather than estimated.
My forecast share price is base upon and estimation of the dividend they will pay, and then estimating what yield the market will give that dividend.
Lots of moving pieces there - ie will OBE go with the biggest dividend they can, or the smallest, or something inbetween.
My estimate for funds flow in Q4/22 has a big variance, given all the uncertainy on the variables - ie what will be the average oil/gas price in Q4. What will be the production. What will be the Capex in Q4, what will be the dividend payout ratio. What will be the management performance cost. That being said, at this moment my point estimate is they could pay a dividend of $55 million in Q4/22 - or about 68c/share. A 5% yield would be achieved with a share price of $54. A 10% yield would be achieved with a share price of C$27.
ie at this moment in time, my Q4/22 share price estimate is C$27-54.
Thats my personal estimate for sometime in Q4/22 as of this moment.
As additional information becomes available between now and then, that number will change
Macro visibility is very poor presently - maybe there will be a nuclear war later this year? Maybe a massive economic depression. Maybe a Middle East War......... Maybe OBE gets a hostile offer............. Who knows.
Personally I've very comfortable holding OBE.
The Stifel analysis is in alignment with my own. $14 is a reasonable forecast for a $10 share. When it gets to $14, that target price may get increased. Analysts get rated based on hitting their forecasts. If he things its going to $20+, then saying $14 is much safer way to get his bonus.
Notice the volume today, about 1.1 million shares on the TSX and the US, plus another 600k on other Canadian exchanges. Noteworthy that interest is fairly equal in the US and Canada.