Noranda Income Fund Unit T.NIF.UN

RE:RE:RE:Earnings out

[Bigbird9999]

Focus on the EBITDA which gets rid of all the accounting fluff and is essentialy the free cash flow.. The huge hedge losses will zero out over time.  

As expected the EBITDA for 21 was nil, i.e. essentialy break even.  The planets are aligned for what could be a very good 2022.  LME futures are >$3400 ($1.50) and predicted to hold or go higher vs. $1.36 average in 21.  This could add $10 - $20 million to FCF/EBITDA in 22.  China spot TC averaged $80 in 21 but went to $140 in Dec and $170 in Jan.  Epperts are predicting >200 in Feb.  The IZA meeting where the con buyers and sellers get together for "mating season" is happening now.  In the next weeks the benchmark TC will be revealed.  And the market TC determined by the secret formula  (or by contract with Glencore) will be determined. Everything points to ~$200 TC. Which could add >$50million to the EBITDA/FCF.

They touched on this in the webcast today.  Of course they downplayed the positive vibes saying that Wood Mac and CRU that publish TCs are hesitant with their predictions due to the global situation and uncertainty..

Of course all these rosey predictions could collapse into a steaming pile of s**t if the world economy goes into recession or the shooting escalates or a meteor hits Valleyfield, but for now 22 looks very positive.

Of course we won't see Q1-22 results until May .  If the rosey predictions come to pass the SP could easily double,  but we have been there many times before and some disaster always seems to occur.

Those inclined to wait and see what happens before they buy in will likely miss the rising tide because it will be more like a tsunami that happens in an instant.
GLTA
BB