BTE history and my estimate… Below I have shown the total shares, BTE stock price, average WTI price and average production from year 2013 to 2021. Some of these values are roughly taken, but we will get a good idea of cyclical performance of the company. Company experienced some heavy dilution through these years.
Now that we have the 2022 guidance: 81,500,000 boe/d. 550M free cash flow. 25% return of FCF, if the WTI stay steady at ~$95/b, BTE could hit ~$11 easily. Anything more than that depend heavily on overall performance and increase in production.
2013: 124,497,000 ($44-$37), WTI-$106, production 60,184 boe/d (89% oil and NGL)
2014: 166,709,000 ($49-$41), WTI-$97, production 94,093 boe/d (85% oil and NGL)
2015: 210,225,000 ($19.5-$3.9), WTI-$46, production 82,170 boe/d (81% oil and NGL)
2016: 211,542,000 ($7.7-$4.7), WTI-$45, production 67,167 boe/d (78% oil and NGL)
2017: 235,451,000 ($4.1-$2.7), WTI-$48, production 69,310 boe/d (80% oil and NGL)
2018: 553,950,000 ($2.3-$5.4), WTI-$60, production 82,412 boe/d (81% oil and NGL)
2019: 557,972,000 ($2.6-$1.6), WTI- $56, production 94,927 boe/d (82% oil and NGL)
2020: 561,163,000 ($1.87-$0.34), WTI-$41, production 77,814 boe/d (82% oil and NGL)
2021: 564,213,000 ($4.1-$0.7), WTI-$70, production 79,942 boe/d (81% oil and NGL)
2013: 124,497,000 ($44-$37), WTI-$106, production 60,184 boe/d (89% oil and NGL)
2014: 166,709,000 ($49-$41), WTI-$97, production 94,093 boe/d (85% oil and NGL)
2015: 210,225,000 ($19.5-$3.9), WTI-$46, production 82,170 boe/d (81% oil and NGL)
2016: 211,542,000 ($7.7-$4.7), WTI-$45, production 67,167 boe/d (78% oil and NGL)
2017: 235,451,000 ($4.1-$2.7), WTI-$48, production 69,310 boe/d (80% oil and NGL)
2018: 553,950,000 ($2.3-$5.4), WTI-$60, production 82,412 boe/d (81% oil and NGL)
2019: 557,972,000 ($2.6-$1.6), WTI- $56, production 94,927 boe/d (82% oil and NGL)
2020: 561,163,000 ($1.87-$0.34), WTI-$41, production 77,814 boe/d (82% oil and NGL)
2021: 564,213,000 ($4.1-$0.7), WTI-$70, production 79,942 boe/d (81% oil and NGL)
2022 guidance: 81,500,000 boe/d. 550M free cash flow. 25% return of FCF.
With current setup at $95/b, BTE could hit ~$11.