Rough Diam Prices (Fri, 25 Feb) - Mentioned by Will PurcellDiamond explorers and miners struggle to get their stories heard despite record high rough prices. Paul Zimnisky's global rough diamond price index has retreated -- temporarily perhaps -- from yet another all-time high, dropping 0.4 per cent this week to just below 200. That puts prices at double their level just before the Great Recession hit and about where a subsequent recovery put prices in the spring of 2011.
Despite the latest slip, the index is up roughly 70 per cent since the COVID-19-induced collapse in prices abated in the spring of 2020. With prices up 34 per cent over the past year, that increase has been steady and relentless, although for the past several months, Mr. Zimnisky has been toying with investors, first suggesting the rally is over, and then cheering prices higher as late-arriving data wiped away the hint of gloom.
Whether the surge will continue is difficult to say. A similar pattern followed the Great Recession meltdown, in which a rally that ran for nearly two years showed a comparable gain. History might suggest that the current run will end in a few months, if not now, once restocking by manufacturers is complete -- and if so, investors might ruefully recall that a decade-long slow decline in rough prices followed the end of the previous rally.