Contrarian position re: Oil PriceI don't agree with this, but it's always good to at least be aware of other perspectives
Citi commodity strategist Edward Morse predicts weakness ahead for the crude price,
“With the escalation of tensions now becoming outright Russian military action into Ukraine, oil prices rallied temporarily above $100. Price spike risk and volatility remain high as global oil inventories are extremely low due to concerted OPEC+ action and plummeting U.S. production while winter oil demand has been stronger, in part due to gas-to-oil switching. 1Q’22 now looks to see a stock draw of 0.9-m b/d, rather than a stock build. However, with our base case now seeing Iranian sanctions relief in 2Q, along with fast growth in OPEC+ and non-OPEC+ supply, global oil inventories shift to stock builds of well over 1-m b/d in 2Q’22 and beyond. We revise up our 2022 Brent prices, but maintain a significant downward trajectory through 2022, continuing to see major downside for Dec’22 oil prices as the focus shifts away from geopolitical risk to sustained oversupply and peaking oil demand … We revise our oil price outlook upwards in 2022, with 1Q’22 up $12 to $91, but maintain a downward trajectory for prices through the year to reach the $60s by year end.”