2022-2032 Projected Cash FlowsI have made certain assumptions and worked out the cash flows for 2022-2032. Since the horizon is 11 years, many of the assumptions made will not pan out year-to-year. However, I think the averages assumed for zinc price and AISC will stand for the 11 year period. If you don't agree with my assumptions, please make changes and create your own snapshot.
The snapshot is freezed in time as on date based on the status of Trevali's existing operations and confirmed plan of RP2.0. I believe that Caribou and its satellites will keep producing in the emerging zinc price environment. ROL and future investments in new/existing mines (which is very likey with huge surplus cash flows in hand) will dramatically change this snapshot for the better.
Based on this snapshot, from 2022 to 2032, Trevali will generate a surplus Cashflow of $828 Million. After paying of the existing debt of $89 Million and RP2.0 project cost of $144 Million (30% higher that what the project report says), Trevali will be left with a surplus of $595 Million.
IMHO these estimates are very conservative and are likely to have an upside.
| YEARLY CASH FLOW AND CUMULATIVE CASH FLOW |
| Zinc Production (M lbs) | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 |
| Perkoa | 136.5 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Rosh Pinah | 66.0 | 62.0 | 105.0 | 140.0 | 140.0 | 140.0 | 140.0 | 140.0 | 140.0 | 115.0 | 50.0 |
| Caribou | 61.0 | 64.0 | 64.0 | 64.0 | 64.0 | 64.0 | 64.0 | 64.0 | 64.0 | 64.0 | 64.0 |
| TOTAL | 263.5 | 126.0 | 169.0 | 204.0 | 204.0 | 204.0 | 204.0 | 204.0 | 204.0 | 179.0 | 114.0 |
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| Average Zinc Price ($/lb) (30% higher than RP2.0 Feasibility Study for 2024-2032) | 1.65 | 1.52 | 1.52 | 1.52 | 1.52 | 1.52 | 1.52 | 1.52 | 1.52 | 1.52 | 1.52 |
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| Revenue (Million $) | 404 | 192 | 257 | 310 | 310 | 310 | 310 | 310 | 310 | 272 | 173 |
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| AISC Perkoa ($/lb) | 1.13 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| AISC Rosh Pinah ($/lb) (Assuming 20% increase from 0.67 to 0.80 in AISC over RP2.0 project life) | 1.07 | 1.07 | 0.94 | 0.80 | 0.80 | 0.80 | 0.80 | 0.80 | 0.80 | 0.80 | 0.96 |
| AISC Caribou ($/lb) | 1.20 | 1.20 | 1.20 | 1.20 | 1.20 | 1.20 | 1.20 | 1.20 | 1.20 | 1.20 | 1.20 |
| Average AISC ($/lb) | 1.13 | 1.14 | 1.04 | 0.93 | 0.93 | 0.93 | 0.93 | 0.93 | 0.93 | 0.95 | 1.09 |
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| Cash Flow from Operations (Miilion $) | 106 | 49 | 82 | 121 | 121 | 121 | 121 | 121 | 121 | 103 | 49 |
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| Other Cash Expenses (Million $) (G&A, Share Based Compensation, Interest, forex Loss, Taxes, Other Expenses) | 32 | 32 | 38 | 33 | 23 | 21 | 21 | 21 | 21 | 21 | 21 |
| | | | | | | | | | | | |
| NET CASH FLOW (Million $) | 74 | 17 | 44 | 88 | 98 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 82 | 27 |
| CUMULATIVE CASH FLOW (Million $) | 74 | 91 | 135 | 223 | 321 | 421 | 520 | 620 | 719 | 801 | 828 |
| | | | | | | | | | | | |
| CUMULATIVE SURPLUS/DEBT ASSUMING RP2.0 PROJECT COST INCREASES BY 30% TO $144 MILLION |
| Existing Surplus/Debt (Million $) | -89 | -89 | -142 | -98 | -10 | 88 | 187 | 287 | 386 | 486 | 567 |
| Addition Debt from Outside Sources for RP2.0 | 0 | -53 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Allocation to RP2.0 from Internal cash generation | -74 | -17 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| CUMULATIVE SURPLUS/(DEBT) (Million $) | -89 | -142 | -98 | -10 | 88 | 187 | 287 | 386 | 486 | 567 | 595 |