Wall St/CBOE pros continue to abuse TSX rules/complianceDATE SHORT POSTION
FEB 15 $1,899,258,668 FEB 28 $2,903,258,668
The value of the short position increased a billion dollars in the 2 week period
The increase in the short position represented 46.57% of the value of all trades for the period
The guys who are manipulating the share price by moving billions of dollars are not going to let SU run up until it suits them (at least until the March 18 option expiry date).
I suspect the pros will continue to hammer SU down through the April option expiry (April 15th). At that point, the pros will likely want to get out of the way before SU announces its Q1 numbers and potentially a dividend increase for Q2
In the meantime, revenues could end up averaging US$15 more per barrel in Q1 2022 vs Q4 2021 if current prices hold through the end of the month.
Regardless of what the pros do to the share price, SU's balance sheet is getting stronger every day.
Mgmt has guided "
This year we’ll allocate free funds flow after the dividend and capital program evenly – so 50/50 – between share buybacks and net debt reduction"
I think it is worth repeating that SU should generate $4 billion of cash flow from operations in Q1 which equates to $16 billion per year. Mgmt guided under $5 billion for CAPEX for 2022 and the cost to cover the dividend at $2.00 per share would be under $3 billion.
SU will still have about $8 billion left over to split between its NCIB and debt repayment. That means the company could buy back 100 million shares at an average of $40 per share. It would also mean a reduction of debt down to $12 billion by the end of 2022.
By bumping the dividend and paying down the debt the company will have achieved two significant goals by the end of 2022 instead of 2025.
The pros can take that and suck it.