RE:Red/JD updated my BTE comparisonBayStreetWolfTO wrote: Take a look. I updated the current share price and oil price.
Factoring in the share float change, FX change, production change, share price change and oil price change these are my new numbers
Given the price of Oil, Production, Share Float, Fully factored hedges, FX...I still calculate a massive current discount in the share price....
But again just numbers for now....
| | 2010 | 2011 | 2012 | 2013 | | Mar-22 | |
| Stock price | $ 46.61 | $ 56.60 | $ 42.37 | $ 41.55 | | $ 5.71 | |
| O/S shares (million) | 113,712 | 117,893 | 121,868 | 125,392 | | 564,200 | |
| | | | | | | 4.71 | Float Factor (21 vs avg 10-13) |
| Debt ($ million) | $ 502.190 | $ 650.581 | $ 599.826 | $ 792.062 | | $ 1,409.717 | |
| BOE | 45,015 | 53,054 | 55,046 | 57,196 | | 80,789 | |
| | | | | | | 1.54 | Production Factor (21 vs avg 10-13) |
| F/X | $ 0.9970 | $ 1.0196 | $ 0.9922 | $ 1.0623 | | $ 1.2690 | |
| WTI Price $ USD | $ 91.38 | $ 98.83 | $ 91.82 | $ 98.42 | | $ 108.58 | |
| WTI Price $ CAD | $ 91.11 | $ 100.77 | $ 91.10 | $ 104.55 | | $ 137.79 | |
| | | | | | | 1.42 | WTI Factor (21 vs avg 10-13) |
| | | | | | | | |
| | | | | | | $ 46.78 | Average Price 2010-2013 |
| | | | | | | $ 9.93 | Float impact (reduction 46.78/4.71) |
| | | | | | | $ 15.29 | Production impact (increase 9.93*1.54) |
| | | | | | | $ 21.74 | Pricing impact (reduction 15.29*1.42) |
| | | | | | | | |
| | | | | | | $ 21.74 | Adjusted price |
nice numbers. Shows how much room there is to run. If you cut the gap in half, were roughly looking at 13 bucks. I think sentiment will slowly turn. I'd happily take 13 by year end. Nice work Wolf.