THE ONLY 3 VARIABLES THAT MATTER....
It is important to remember 3 things concerning Trevali's future and ask 3 question's
1. Does TV have longterm mining asset potential?
Yes..... RP2 development will ensure TV has a relativiely low AISC mine for many years.
2. Will RP2 be funded and developed?
Yes...TV is and will continue to prioritize RP2 as it's core asset. TV will finance as much as they are able from internal cash flows. They should and very probably will get some funding from outside sources...financial entities or Glencore.
Even if no other Financial entites were interested in lending....Glencore wants that concentrate, they will ensure RP2 gets developed.
Glencore will not offer terms that are not in it's best interest. They will push for the most profit deabilitating terms you or I can imagine.
Glencore saved TV a couple years ago from going under, that was not done for charity.....make no mistake that is a part of the reason Caribou is hedged for long.
The less support Tv needs from Glencore the better....but there is no question that Glencore will provide it.
3. How much value will remain in TV and for it's shareholders after financing deals and contracts have inked to aid in development of RP2?
If the price of Zinc stays reasonably high for the foreseable future (next 3-4 quarters).We can expect minimal outside financing will be need.
If the price of zinc were to drop, production continues to dissapoint and results are abismal as we are accustomed to. Funding deals that are negociated will of course reduce RP2 future value to TV shareholders.......but even a heavily debted TV with a developed RP2 will be worth far more than the current SP.
To recap
1.RP2 is TV'S future
2.GLencore wants the concentrate..therefor RP2 is going to happen
3.Even in the worst case funding senario TV will be worth more than current sp.
These are the variables that matter...the rest is noise. SP goes up..we hope and dream, SP goes down we cry and scream:)
We have all had our chance to average down a bit. Only thing to do now is wait for RP2
Yes it will cost more than predicted...yes we will have more bad quarters...
The only thing that will mean is TV must borrow a bit more.
Finally the zinc price has risen a bit and the SP is moving, SP is meaningless to me as it could drop again tomorrow.
What is important about the rising Zinc price is it's potential helpful effect on financing negociations,if TV management is wise enough to take advantage.
As was mentioned by another poster I think there be will enough profitabilty over the next 8 quarters that inspite of themselves ......management will not be able to ruin RP2's development
So you can trade it or you can hold it.
By the time RP2 gets done the SP will be substancially higher.
Glencore will make sure it happens...you can bet on it.
I am sure others have had successes with various trading strategies, personally
I have achieved my investing successes by getting rid of the emotions and allowing patience to do the work. Taking a very broad view is the only thing that ever worked for me.
GTLA