RE:RE:RE:RE:Another posiive report from management of this quarters
HHHAPPY wrote: When I said "positive" I was referring to the fact that the Dividend of.
01 was assured by the royalty payment due. For a while it looked like the royalty might require additions from the cash holdings of NWX
Anyone buying a stock for .40 for a .01 or .02 seems to me to be in the wrong business
You've been here long enough to see me run numbers every quarter and seen that not being able to hit a 1 penny dividend has not been the problem since September 2020, and that was a major outlier due to it being the first full quarter under the pandemic, If your 'positive' is that a penny coverage was safe maintainace, your expectations are mighty low especially after 3 straight and 4 of the last 5 payouts were 2 cents or more... 'positive' should equal either getting a growing number on the income (which we did) or coverage on the previous dividend level (which got closer but not quite there).
If you got in earlier at sub .35 cents you get atleast a 11.4% yeild or better on a penny per quarter which is decent and add on the fact you've been running with a 10+cent gain in share price which is over 28.6% gain on that idea. The 2 cent payout had you earing 22.8% so you were seeing an overall return of 51.4% in a little over the year, those people are happy at getting the penny and still somewhat holding this level, but it is retreating. Which I would guess is your case, and I would like to be in that camp, but a breakdown throws you down towards just maintaining that just above 11% gain year over year which is actually below the 5 year average yeild return of 16.4%, which is again sub par for this extreamly risky name.
For those that got in in the 40 cent range, we were getting in on a 15-20% yeild at a 2 penny distribution, with 8-22% gains on share prices, and maintaining that level was what would be 'positive' for us. A 1 penny per quarter is a yeild of 8-10% and those differences are significant and deserve attention.
I stated and I still feel that things will average out at 6 cents per year payout as that is a level the the company seems to be able to maintain most with a little wiggle room. But there's a difference in when you got in to get that 6 cents, as at .35 = 17.1% yeild year over year which is above the 5 year average while maintaining a .45 share price for gain of 28.6% and .40 = 15% Year over year + 12.5% gain.
Also keep in mind, in your 'positive' world, you have experienced a 50% reduction in your payout and a 7% loss of value based on the triple top of .50 down to the current .465 value, even if your in at the early range, that's a pretty good shot in the arm and I stated before I can see it continuing to fall especially if they do what's likely best for shareholders to maintain that penny payout for anouther quarter.
On a stock with this low of a share price the difference between .01 and .02 per quarter is rather significant and where it will lead the share price and if your not looking at that, I think your not doing much your investment here justice.
Also note that things have gone pretty close to the warnings and guidance I've stated running numbers and are heading towards my forward prediction. I've walked away twice with gains that equal 23.7 in overall returns on in prices of .40 and .44 from early last May to late January with a month spread I was out, which = 8 months, and I've acknowledged that I left some extra possible gains on the table with some mistakes on my part. I think my thesis on how I'm maneuvering has been pretty solid especially when I look at what I did post exit.
I would like to get in again but at a price with upside that I feel is worth the risk. If and when I do, I will stick to the maths and plan I have shown to maximize potential. If I can pretty much predict danger for downside like I warned of in this case before it happens, I'll continue to be nimble and do ok.
And as a bonus, I'll keep people aware of what I'm looking at so those that are interested get more in-depth coverage (albeit limited as I have no major background in the field) with figures that can be discussed and debated rather than: 'yay! we are able to cover a penny' or 'looky here, they say things are going well'. I would like to see people do well by themselves, especially since most of us here are retailers self directing our own investments and in-depth analysis, information, experience and conversation does help us with our attempts at portfolio gains.