RE:Bank Debt in 2022 Due to elevated prices in Q4. I anticipate BNE pulled forward CAPEX Q4 and Q1. Production was expected to be heavily in Q1-2. I think production is likely 15,000 to 15,500 Boe. Average price for WTI was Jan-Feb = $88, let's assume oil will average $115. Hence Q1 average could be $97. Differential is about $2 instead of $4.
incremental FCF above $70.
15,500 x ( ($97-$70)+ (4-2)) X1.25 FE = $560k/day
so incremental Q1 FCF above expected FCF @70 strip is 51.6 million. Hence total FCF for Q1 will be over 77 million.
BNE well reduce debt by 100,000,000 by the middle of May. I expect they will then press the banks for more flexibility. I would not be surprised to see a dividend reinstated before the end of Q4. And I expect BNE to pay a dividend in the long term of over three dollars a share… $.25-$.30 per month