RE:RE:Bank Debt in 2022snowshoedb wrote: Due to elevated prices in Q4. I anticipate BNE pulled forward CAPEX Q4 and Q1. Production was expected to be heavily in Q1-2. I think production is likely 15,000 to 15,500 Boe. Average price for WTI was Jan-Feb = $88, let's assume oil will average $115. Hence Q1 average could be $97. Differential is about $2 instead of $4.
incremental FCF above $70.
15,500 x ( ($97-$70)+ (4-2)) X1.25 FE = $560k/day
so incremental Q1 FCF above expected FCF @70 strip is 51.6 million. Hence total FCF for Q1 will be over 77 million.
BNE well reduce debt by 100,000,000 by the middle of May. I expect they will then press the banks for more flexibility. I would not be surprised to see a dividend reinstated before the end of Q4. And I expect BNE to pay a dividend in the long term of over three dollars a share… $.25-$.30 per month
I give them credit. They have gone out of their way to keep the float low while so many others blew their brains out on diluting over the years. That's why the dividend can be so substantial in terms of nominal value. The yield can still be 5% but the share price could be $20 with a mere $1 dividend. And so on.