RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:Free cash flow over 50% in 2022clamlinguine wrote: The1Wolf1 wrote: The sensitivity to NBP/TTF gas is $1 mmbtu increase in gas price results in $16MM increase in CF. If they were unhedged that $1 increase results in $40MM increase in CF
Correct. Here is my calculation for fcf at todays prices for 2022 using page 36.
Vet says they make fcf of $1.5 Billion at $82 wti 85 brent and $34 ttf.(the main drivers)
Add
$72 CAD ttf- $34 CAD ttf= $38 CAD over baseline $38 X $16 = $608 million fcf addition
$100 US wti - $82 US wti=$18 US over baseline $18 x $16= $288 million fcf addition
(assume brent also $16 higher than baseline)
$608 mil + $208 mil + 1.5 mil= $2.316 billion / 165 mil shares = $14 per share fcf 2022
I feel other variables are not significant at this point. Anybody able to follow and see mistakes, let me know. lol.
Here's what I get for this moment with the new sensitivities. TTF is at 216 ($90 cad) , wti oil is 107 average futures price for the rest of 2022.
$90 CAD euro gas- $58 base = $32 x $13.7 FFO per dollar= $438 million over baseline estimate.
$107 US wti- $93 US baseline= $14 x $10.6 FFO per dollar=$148 million over baseline estimate
$438mill. gas+ 148mill. oil + 1900 mill baseline FCF= $2.486 billion
$2.486 billion / 165 million shares= $15 per share
My suspect calculations.