RE:RE:RE:Who has a handle on Q1 earnings. Good evening Fortune, Red does a very good job trying to track the data but you are right these are all guesses which is why we wait for the Q1 results.
That said remember Q1 pricing started November 23rd, 2021 (January front month)
The price you see now is the April (Q2 contract) not part of Q1...
If you recall during the January Front Month we had some days there (with the COVID Omnicron and SPR) which dropped WTI to high $60's)
See below chart this may help match up how Q1 went vs how Q2 is starting (although I need to update Q2 my last update was March 4th)
fortunefavorsus wrote: I think your numberslisted below are light. They did 552M at benchmark prices of $77 WTI and $63 WCS U.S. If oil prices hold up until the end of the quarter then benchmark prices could average around $95-100 WTI and $85 WCS with better priced hedges. So I think you will see closer to $200 million FCF.
Here is one base on avg. WTI per month. 81,500 boe/d !
Revenues : 590M$ to 600M$
Net Back 61% : 590M$ X 61% = 360M$
Ajust Fund Flow (AFF) : 250M$
Free CashFlow (FCF) : 160M$ to 170M$
Increase a bit those numbers if Clearwater added 3,000 boe/d or more !
Let's see what BayStreetWolf has to say ! :)