RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:Free cash flow over 50% in 2022delissio wrote: Thanks Oldnagger for the calculation and the high quality post as always.
I will share my thought process, please feel free to correct any calculation errors or wrong assumptions.
After the review of the last presentation, my understanding is the company is estimating to make 2022 FCF of 1.9B hedged (slide 10), using the prices from slide 37 (as per their footnotes 1 and 3 from slide 10):
WTI US$93.06
Brent US$99.68
TTF $58.44
Since WTI average for the Q1 is close to ~US$93, I could consider not adding anything to WTI/Brent part of the additional FCF. If the 2022 annual average price changes to today WTI price of US$110, then additional 272 M can be added. ($110-$93=$17 and $17x16M=272M)
I am not an expert on converting TTF in Euros to TTF in $/mmbtu. I have seen a formula in your other post, so let's see if I understood your approach:
Yesterday TTF price was 156 EUR, dividing it by 3.41 and then multiplying by EUR/CAD rate:
156/3.41X 1.42 = ~$65
TTF ($/mmbtu): $65-$58.44= ~$ 6.5
$6.5x 39.1 M (unhedged) = 254 M
Total FCF would be 1900 + 272 + 254 = 2.43 B CAD, using their last presentation, unhedged additions and the approximate current (relatively high) commodity prices.
And of course - if this number becomes reality, drinks are on me ;).
Cheers!
Thanks for doing a cleaned up version of what I was doing. I think a mistake you're making is that you're using the unhedged number. I believe that is the wishful projection as if we weren't hedged at some lower prices this year. If we weren't laden with hedges on the eurogas we'd be making an extra 34 million for every dollar over $58 cad. So for this years projections you should use the "hedged" column. imo