RE:RE:Remember this: How do they get 15-20% in 2022 forecast Thank you for the respectful response!
I am very well familiar with growth at a reasonable price. The problem is when growth is non existent.
TTD is surely overpriced but it is still considered by investors as a growth stock given they are growing revenues at a nice clip and they are best in class. AT has much more seasonality than TTD does and Q4 is supposed to be a monster quarter relatively speaking which does not bode well fororganic growth for Q1-Q3.
The problem is that the business itself is dead. They lost a large client (due to agency switch? not clear at all) and have not been able to turn on the flywheel.
I would agree with you (and so would the market) IF they could show at least revenue growth but now it looks like revenue is decelerating and costs are way up.
This is quite frankly a poorly managed business with no vision, Illumin was supposed to be easy to use and the next-next thing in self serve. It's like I said before, it was a bait and switch as it requires lots of handholding and questionable how much added value it brings.
In the end, there is a reason why investors are bailing. Why do you think they are doing that?
Capharnaum wrote: truthis0utther3 wrote: Unlike the perma bulls on this board, hold me to what I write!
There are two scenarios where they are able to end the year with revenue growth at an overall 15-20% or more (they are not mutually exclusive).
Scenario 1 (biggest factor): They purchase revenue by acquisition, meaning, they use some of their war chest to buy a company or two which artificially increases revenue.
Scenario 2: They spend way more on sales and marketing to organically buy revenue (already in progress) which may increase revenue but will increase costs at likely a similar clip.
This company is organically DEAD. The longer time goes on the stock price will be approaching their net cash minus the discount rate (which is now very high).
What should they do? Sell the company for whatever they can get and issue a special dividend for their cash. There is very little chance they are going to be recovering.
Why? Because management cashed out and checked out long ago. Nothing has changed in this regard.
Just look at TTD, in Q4, they increased revenues to $396M from $320M and their operating expenses increased from $213M to $420M. So, my guess is that you think TTD is DEAD too?
TTD's market cap is 24x revenues (that's net of cash) compared to AT which is <1. Look at any metric and it's the same. TTD could buy AT for 5x the current share price and it would still be accretive to their metrics.
You don't seem to understand that value is always relative to share price/market cap. At current market price, nominal growth priced in is 0%.
Lastly, your "perma" bull comment is laughable. AT's pricing is currently super bearish, so unless someone is bearish (like you), yeah, they'll look like "bulls".