RE:RE:CIBCIn a year they will be generating $zillion of EBITDA but $18M of DCF/q and still trade at $1.40 with a $0.01/dividend.
Sold 50k at 1.39 this morning, i'm at about a third of what I held last summer Accumulated for years beginning at about $1.40 but being able to buy it below $0.50 made this obsession of mine eventually profitable. Will continue selling on any pops in price or liquidity, feels like a bad breakup but happy to move on. Selling last summer allowed me to participate in the rally of E&P shares while TWM keeps making...EBITDA.
The Q&A on today's call is worth listening to, from memory some key points:
Pipestone expansion is likely, with financing discussions ongoing (maybe linked to the refinancing of the notes) and a build multiple of 5-6x was tossed out. But expect something to happen there, both in terms of Pipestone and the financing, soon.
Completed new gathering line attached to the BRC, but carbon capture and blue hydrogen at BRC sound unlikely despite the government grant.
Propylene splitter is happening at PGR
Ram, Pipestone, BRC all on scheduled turnarounds this summer, PGR maintenance next year.
Still get the feeling that this goes private, they can't compete with other infrastructure outfirts on cost of capital and have enough good assets to make the associated baggage worth it. I imagine this year will be slightly ahead of last year in terms of volumes and financial results, but most of upside (renewable diesel, pipestone phase 2) will end up going to whoever finances it or takes TWM over.