RE:US Ban on Russian Oil Imports - A JokeYes Experienced, one must recognize that it won't start to bite or affect US inventories until May.
Also, the nature of the oil market is such that it takes a minimum 3 months from the time of purchase, to load a cargo, to ship, to unload, to refine, and get to the fuel stations. We won't feel any difference to supply until then.
This leads to the question, why do pump prices jump so quickly, and why does it drop so slow? In this case, huge profits are made from any inventories held during a price increase for anyone in the refiining and marketing business, hence another reason that SU share prices are even further displaced from realistic valuation. They are slow to drop as they say they paid so much for the crude it must work it's way through the system. But I digress...
In anticipation of a tighter market, global reactions have been made regarding these and other sanctions.
Some events of concern, and to watch carefully as they develop:
-China has imposed an oil product export ban, in an already tightly supplied market.
-The Saudis themselves have initiated a rare bid to buy millions of bbls of diesel.
-Inventories are dropping, when they should be seasonally building. This is happening even prior to the loss of 4 mbpd of Russian crude, so it is likely to get tighter.
-We now have a wide spread between Brent and WTI, around $6, and it is increasing. If the spread is tight, less oil will be exported from the US to the EU due to minimal arbitrage. It now pays to export more US crude, which would further deplete NA inventories.
-Margin requirements on ICE Brent crude have tightened on March 10. This may have help to cause the retreat in oil prices yesterday to $106 WTI, as I think the bullish case still holds.
As for my current positions, I sold half of all my holdings immediately during Tuesday's sudden tweet of potential peace in Ukraine and then watched the market algos react and drop. Yesterday, I have since repurchased nearly all the shares at a lower price, and my margin is now again nearly full at 90%, with a 10% buffer. The difference helps pay the tax I will incurr on them in 2022.
Yesterday, I also bought 7 figures of HOU for a swing trade, as a bullish bet on the temporary pullback from the latest new interm highs of WTI oil. I expect it to stay in 3 figures, and if not, I'll take the stop loss. Present volatility presents opportunities.
In my view, I think it is more likely that the situation in Ukraine will drag on for a lot longer than the west expects. From our western viewpoint, we watch the news and say, why can't there just be a peaceful resolution to this?
I think that largely due to the narrative we are fed, and the information we are not fed. Most in the west misunderstand his motives, objectives, actions, and justifcation for undertaking such a costly initiative. The actions of a crazy man.
I am not a Putin supporter, but as an investor, I do need to get a grasp of what is really going on, as hard as that might be behind the wall of restricted media.
As I understand it now, Putin's uncompromising main objective is to destroy the existential threat to Russia from the far right militant forces within Ukraine. I was surprised to learn that they exist, and have been growing and very active. With a bit of research one can dig a little deeper and uncover some eye popping information about Ukraine, like the 8 years of Ukranian shelling and attacks on the civilian populations of the Donbass regions, for example.
These groups oppose the government and are even a threat to Zelenskyy., He once ordered them to disband and disarm, which didn't go over too well. However, for now, they are an alliance and are fighting alongside and within the Ukraine army against a common enemy.
As Ukraine offered to accept the breakaway regions, and not become a NATO member, it clearly is still not enough to end this war if the powerful far right factions still exist within it. Ukraine will not purge these factions from within by itself, so it will drag on until they are destroyed.
What do we know?
War is hell, and the first victim is truth.
Putin has had many years to prepare for this.
Stay long in oil stocks.
Experienced wrote: The Bill passed in the US House of Representatives to ban Russian imports has some interesting clauses..
1....it will not take effect for 45 days afer it gets senate approval
2....it will not include any oil contracted in the next 45 days
3...Biden can override it if he thinks it is in the national interest to import the oil
Soooo...unless the Ukraine war lasts another 45 days this bill is meaningless and if the war lasts longer Biden can override it if he thinks gasoline prices are too high..
Putin has gotta be laughing at this. Talk about a toothless tiger and yet on CNN they are saying "OMG Biden and Pelosi are sticking it to Putin" ------NOT
Meanwhile back at the ranch, Zelenskky is saying enough already about words, I need concrete action/support!!!