Capharnaum wrote: argon12 wrote: I can't believe that none of the top brass has been fired.
BOD exposs themselves to personal lawsuits if they don't act in shareholders best interest.
Always bet on the jockey not the horse. The CEO has clearly blundered in just about every way.
Compensation model has to be redone by BOD or they will be taken to task.
TD analyst is just about as dumb as the CEO.
Imo, that's why they should be taken off by private equity. In the public stock market, investors have no patience.
Illumin has seen good sequential growth last year (over 30% per quarter), considering 70% of its revenue is derived from new customers. Existing customers that switched to Illumin have in general increased their spendings compared to the legacy platform. Considering that it is still a platform in development that requires extra features, my own opinion is that it has done fine. I know some think these numbers reflect a "dead" platform because they haven't yet reached the point where customers use it as a self-service, but I would disagree with that looking at the numbers.
Imo, the decision to invest $11M in sales and marketing by contracting salesmen with books of companies will be the one that's going to either prove the management right or wrong. I believe that their timeline for payback (starting Q3 and increasing in Q4) might be a little too quick and that it may take to 2023 to really see extra growth. However, considering the traction that Illumin has shown in 2021 (over 30% quarter to quarter sequential growth with 70% coming from new clients), maybe they'll get there on their current schedule with new clients. If spending on sales really gets AT on a 20% top line growth trend for the next couple of years (including the termination of the legacy platform), then the management will have been proven right.
This is where patience is required as they get the features done in Illumin to be able to switch all their customers to that platform and bring a "full" product to the market. If they come out of these efforts with flat revenue and higher costs, then it might be time to check the market for a buyer (instead of "changing" management). In the sector, it should be relatively easy to get at least 2x revenue + cash from a buyer, as it will be accretive to any buyer considering others in the sector trade at 7x+ revenue (ie: TTD trades at 25x revenue).
Considering that, looking out two years, I can't see many scenarios where the shareholders won't be able to recover at least $6 for their shares. I know many will disagree, but the funny part is that those that do almost only do based on their general qualitative opinion. Show me those deals in the sector below 2x revenue and then I'll re-assess my valuation model, cause I haven't seen any.