CIBC Equity Reasearch Overly Harsh Earning Review IMO This is their report on Q4/21 but if you go to their earnings report page they have a low estimate of $.37 per share, a high of $.41 per share with a consensus of $.39 per share and show a slight beat for the quarter at $.42 per share. They are inconsistant with their analysis IMO although they post a decent price target of $14.50 CAD over the next 12 months.
The new acquisition and the forecasted investment grade debt levels are the icing and cherry on the cake for me.
'I was very much expecting a pop on these earnings and obviously the market didn't see it the way I did unless of course this is just trading on technicals and the algos have yet to trigger that uptrending buying spree as they are waiting on that handle formation.
Either way I bought in on a satisfying 6% yield that is just beating out inflation right now.
GLTA
Q4/21 Missed But Intriguing Catalysts Emerging
Our Conclusion
Peyto’s headline Q4/21 metrics were mostly pre-released, but subsequent
adjustments drove a production miss and weaker-than-expected gas
realizations contributed to a cash flow miss. Peyto’s small acquisition in
January appears to be motivated by infrastructure and liquids-weighted
drilling prospects and is synergistic with its existing operations at Brazeau.
Our updated estimates reflect changes to our production and capex
assumptions for 2022 and 2023 with no change to 2022E CFPS. Peyto is
trading at 3.0x 2022E EV/DACF versus peers at 2.7x and we maintain our
Neutral rating and price target.
Key Points
Headline metrics were pre-released but post-quarter adjustments drove
production slightly lower while cash flow missed. Production of 97.3
Mboe/d missed our estimate of 98.7 MBoe/d and Street at 98.8 MBoe/d.
Capital spending of $109MM was pre-released. Peyto’s realized natural gas
price in Q4/21 was $3.58/Mcf versus our estimate of $3.85/Mcf while
adjusted funds flow per share, excluding a $7.7MM compensation charge,
came in at $0.93/sh versus our estimate of $1.02/sh and Street at $0.97/sh.
Tuck-in acquisition at Brazeau come with free production. Peyto
acquired a private junior producer in the Brazeau River area in Q1/22 for
$22MM, which included 880 Boe/d of production (10% liquids), 73 net
sections of land, a 45 MMcf/d gas plant, and related gas gathering
infrastructure. Although the deal metrics compute to $25,000/Boe/d, the
acquired gas plant’s replacement cost could be as high as ~$25MM, similar
to the cost of Peyto’s Chambers plant so we view the deal as a net positive.
Cardium drilling is expected to increase liquids weighting slightly. To
date, Peyto has drilled 22 gross wells with 18 brought on production, and 17
drilled and uncompleted or awaiting tie-in with the bulk of wells targeting the
Cardium in the Greater Brazeau Area. Given the Cardium wells are typically
more liquids rich, we would expect Peyto’s liquids weighting to increase and
have adjusted our assumptions such that the company will produce ~12%
liquids in 2022 on average, which is up from 10% prior.
Cascade start-up in 2023 should have a positive contribution to realized
gas pricing. Major equipment has arrived on location and the facility is on
track towards a mid-2023 start up. Peyto will supply 60,000 GJ/d (~52
MMcf/d) of natural gas to the plant. The company’s disclosure suggests
Peyto will receive spark-spread pricing from the plant operator for the feed
gas in excess of AECO, which should be positive for gas realization