Theratechnologies Inc T.TH

RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:MTD

[palinc2000]

The interest rate in the URGN loan is not as worrisome as the terms and conditions of the loan....If they default they lose everything
https://investors.urogen.com/static-files/c51d3d62-632b-4630-ad31-13d472fce647

SPCEO1 wrote: If their stock was valued somewhat normally, it likely would have been in a range where a good share offering could have been done and shareholders like us would not be complaining about such sensible deals done at sensible prices using sensible brokers and resulting in sensible analyst coverage. Moreover, they would not need to go the debt route because they could get a fair deal on the equity side of the equation. But they have managed to somehow alienate a large swath of the investment community over a long period of time such that very few investors even pay any attention at all to TH any longer despite the good work they are doing and the results they likely will soon achieve in cancer. What we are seeing is a remarkable success on the R&D side of their business coupled with an abysmal failure on the capital markets side of their business - that is actually hard to pull off yet they have somehow managed to do it! They are naturally unwilling to do an share offering at these low prices so a debt deal seems more attractive and it is more attractive as the cost of equity at these low share prices is high and the cost of debt is low. But debt financing is inherently more risky since if you don't get things right on the business side, there is going to be a very ugly share offering in your future. Now, TH knows a lot more than we about their chances of success in cancer in the time frame needed to pay back or refinance the debt (TH just needs to have enough business success to refinance the debt to avoid a calamitous share offering five years down the road). We are already seeing this play out witht he convertible. TH's sales of Trogarzo came up way short of what was hoped for but they still have had enough business success to be able to swing a refinancing of that debt if needed. 

Now the terms of any debt deal are important, of course. The UGRN deal has a variable interest rate that is 8.25% above LIBOR. So, in a rising rate environment, that could get burdensome quite quickly.  With the convertible, they were able to lock in the interest rate at an attractive level and avoid the risk of interest rate hikes pushing up the interest expense. Of course, we may soon be back in a recessionary environment with low LIBOR rates so perhaps that will not be as great a risk as it might at first appear.

It will be interesting to see what TH does on the financing front - how much they raise, when they raise it, how they intend to spend it and how much risk they take in the process. Hopefully, they get all of that right, or at least most of it, but it is a balancing act. Given the low share price, the debt approach may make sense but it does raise the risk long term. I assume they might be looking to raise money for the phase III NASH trial once they get the new version of the IND signed off on by the FDA. Ideally, they would get a partner to underwrite that amount rather than needing to do debt financing but that seems unlikely to me. 

URGN has a market cap of $188 million and was able to get a loan for $100 million with interest only payments for the first four years from Pharmakon Advisors. URGN also has 7 analysts covering their stock including Goldman Sachs, Cowen and Jeffries. This once agin highlights how so many other companies in the biotech field get better coverage that TH despite their small size.

  

 

SABBOBCAT wrote:

Thanks for the update Rusty!

One note, bank analysts are there to attract deal flow. If there is a large (non convert) debt offering you would get some coverage as they know there will likely be a refinancing or equity offering in 4-5 years time. That is assuming thet dont go with a Mackie/NBF deal again FML. 

 

 

SPCEO1 wrote: I am one of those large shareholders that do get access that others might not. For the first time since the ONO, I spoke directly to the CEO and CFO today and, as always, I am happy to share with my fellow longsuffering shareholders what I heard. So, unlike most other stocks you might own, you still have a front row seat with THTX. And the view from those seats remains promising on cancer.

Here are some meaningful things I learned today:

1.) While they do not explicitily say so, it is clear TH-1902 is on a good path given their actions and the general vibe of the discussion. For example, they referenced a meeting they had earlier today in which Dr. Rothenberg participated where they were discussing how they could best optimize the future trials of TH-1902. You do not need to discuss such things if path ahead is not looking good. We cannot know exactly where they are on the path or what the actual results will be until they report them to us, but we can reasonably assume things are good path at this time and that we have a pretty good chance of being happy shareholders again in the not too distant future.

2.) Some of the patients in the phase 1a will join the phase 1b. As a result, it seems to me that THTX will have a very good headstart on determining preliminary signs of efficacy early in the phase 1b if that has not already been established in the phase 1a. Whether in phase 1a or phase 1b, we might have evidence of efficacy before June in at least one cancer type (that is me talking, not THTX).

3.) Once they have an efficacy signal, they will approach the FDA about starting a phase 2 trial. The phase 2 trial will likely start before the phase 1b is completed.

4.) Assuming normal trial timeframes, they think the first version of TH-1902  for some type of cancer could reach the market in 2025. It may be in a small cancer market, such as Thyroid cancer that apparently has very, very high sortilin receptor expression, as the view is it is important to get something across the finish line fast and then expand from there. Of course, I imagine they would have other cancer type trials running too as soon as they have efficacy data that is positive on those other cancers. I did not have a chance to ask if this timeline assumes anything about a BTD being granted.

5.) They mentioned another stock that recently did a $100 million debt financing - URGN is the  symbol. I have not had time to look into it yet but it sounded like this might be an example of non-dilutuve financing they are looking into. URGN stock price jumed over 33% on the news of their deal last week but I really have not had a chance to understand why and I am sure there are signfiicant differences between the two companies.

6.)  They apparently have partnership deals in China they could move forward on but they are looking to make sure they optimize this situation. If they can get the top tier of Chinese drugcompanies interested,it may be a few months before they finalize anything on this front.

7.) In the pre-clinical results announced last week they said the stem cell data was important but we did not have time to discuss why.

8.) I complained very loudly and as obnoxiously as I could to make sure the message was not missed that their interaction with the investment comunity is a five alarm fire that needs to be addressed yesterday or earlier. Unfortuately, I did not get any indication that they see it as a huge problem, so that remains disconcerting to say the least. Data will move the stock higher but data combined with effective communications with the market will optimize the situation. I told Paul that he was meeting this morning to optimize the TH-1902 trials and that he also needed to meet to figure out how to optimize their relationship with investors. Don't hold your breath for significant imporvement on this front as we have already learned from years of misery. It is hard to understand how this abysmal situation has been allowed to go on for so long while getting worse rather than better. It was an ugly part of our interchange but it needed to be. 

9.) They are about to make an offer to an IR person. That may help some but until there is a change in attitudes at the top, any new IR person will probably at best be marginally effective.     
10.) On the analyst front, they are still stuck. No analyst coverage until a deal is done. If they start putting out impressive data on human cancer trials, however, maybe an analyst or two will pick up coverage at some point. If they do a debt financing like URGN, I suspect only debt analysts will pick up coverage. So, that would not be what we are looking for. 

11.) They reiterated what they said on the Q4 conference call that Q1 was looking good.

I think we will know a lot more on cancer between now and the cancer conference at the end of June. 300mg is likely the dose they will use going forward and it should allow THTX to safely addminister a dosage that is 1.5x that of normal Docetaxel, then multiplied by a further 5-7x for what actually gets into the cancer cell and then given more frequently and for a longer period of time. If that is how things actually work out, then we have a good chance of seeing the stock move much, much higher in the short and long term.   

 

Trogarzon wrote:
Also from what I understand, they could get 300mg MTD and use like 200mg or 250mg if it gets the job done and improves the longterm tolerability. Even at 1 times MTD it sends a multiple of Dox to the target area. That being said, it is miserable time for the whole world atm but I personnally find it inexcusable to be at the actual market cap. The most important thing for someone dying of Cancer is hope.. a patient witout hope dies a shareholder without hope sells Thera you are giving hope to a few big shareholders (special meetings) who can then prey on small disgruntled longterm and faithfull shareholders that throw down the towel for lack of HOPE.