RE:Opec spare capacityThere is much less spare capacity than people think. Nat gas is at capacity globally and as a result ammonia production is being throttled back . This will lead to food shortages which will mean that corn production will need to be diverted from ethanol production. Also coal production is tight as a drum. On top of all this ,the population clock continues to tick and fewer deaths from covid are making it tick faster .From here on any minor disruption in any energy supply will be felt very quickly.
I would expect any decrease in energy prices to be very temporary at best !!