RE:RE:Oil Price and Oil StocksYes, great day to have played a gap fade. Good call. I am out of dry powder today, so I missed it.
It was quick today, only about 10 minutes, but I could see that it was quite profitable.
Individual oil stocks are so volatile on a day like today, so that on such setups, I play a gap fade by doing a shotgun approach nailing the movements of baskets of oil stocks in a liquid market, like XEG.TO or even XLE on the US side. HEG.TO is sloppy, as it is not as liquid, and the bid ask spreads are too wide and don't have the depth to use market orders.
I am still a bit cautious of further short term oil downside before we have a big green light to go higher, as the algos and oil traders are programmed to close the gap to around $91 WTI that we saw on Feb 25, tiny as it is. We might even slide sideways for a while until we can close that gap. Rip off that band aid and get it over with.
Feb 25 Gap SU holding up relatively well as usual -3.5%, but CJ sure seems to be drowning at the moment, -13%.
MaximusGainus wrote: For traders out there, these conditions are ripe for a gap fade play. Watch for a large gap down on oil stocks on the open, then a rise to try to close the gap for the first 30 minutes. The rest of the day is up to you.
MigraineCall wrote: There were a huge amount of shorts that got caught offsides when Russia invaded Ukraine. They had to cover, driving the price to $130. It peaked, then the longs cashed out as the VIX got to expensive to carry insurance with options.
Read more here:
https://twitter.com/JKempEnergy/status/1503693404122894337 Now there are a record low in short positions, therefor limited suside spike potential.
War news caused oil to go from +40 to -40 already, and we still have a war. It is overdone to the downside at $95, so expect a rise soon, to at least 50% of the drop, $115 would be my best guess.
Inventories ae dropping, and the demand supply imbalance continues.
Iran, OPEC, and SPR releases will not be enough to replace the Russial bbls off the market.
China imploding is not an issue to the western markets, proven by positive futures.
Oil stocks are amplified, so consider this a time to buy.
Remember, nobody can call a bottom, and the market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent.
My thoughts.
Good luck today all!