RE:The next move for the CIR (China - India - Russia) AxisChanges due to sanctions against Russia have been felt here in Thailand, and if it is any indication, points to a bleak future for the Russians globally.
The Chinese have not been here since Covid started, and that is just fine with me if it stays that way.
Thousands of Russian (and some Ukranian) travellers are stranded all around Thailand. Their bank and credit cards are not working, they have no cash, and their flights are cancelled. The Russian embassy is swamped dealing with the Russians stuck here. Thai's are helping some of them with food, and watching the western biased news reports of the invasion, and their evil empire. Most new Russian arrivals have stopped.
Huge numbers of condos owned by Russians have been put up for sale again at fire sale prices, just like it was during the time of the 2014 Crimea invasion. Good time to buy.
As Russia withdraws from the global markets and behind its walls, there will be some momentous changes in the world we know, forcing some countries to pick sides.
You can forget about Russia and China doing their parts with climate change efforts now. With this new alliance, Russia has the oil, gas, and coal, and China has the insatiable demand. Yet another obstacle in front of EV adoption and the speed of any energy transition. We will be free to burn and overheat the world.
This is positive for oil, and companies that produce it in stable countries, like Suncor.
What we don't have, is the leadership to guide us through what the next few turbulent years will bring.
Obscure1 wrote: It is anticipated that it will take 3-4 years for Russia and China to complete the pipeline infrastructure to take care of all of China's future hydrocarbon needs while supplying Russia with the market that it needs for its resources.
In light of the inflated prices of nat gas and the latest Russia-India pact, I expect that the Russia to India pipeline proposal will be put back on track and expedited quickly.
So what's next?
Taiwan.
Why?
Taiwan controls 92% of the world's supply of semi-conductor chips.
I expect China to move in and take Taiwan overnight (as opposed to Russia bungling the Ukraine takeover) when China's new hydrocarbon infrastructure is secure in 3-4 years. At that point in time, the gloves will officially come off.
What does this mean for Canadians?
Like the ROW, Canada is going to have to choose the Red pill or the Blue pill. Given our ties to the USA and to Europe, the choice is obvious.
What has me intrigued is where the real war is going to happen. Will it be the South China Sea or the Stans which represent the buffer zone between Russia and Europe? I think we may see two fronts, much like we saw in WW2.
China has already warned the US to forget about any idea of resurrecting SEATO. America may believe it has no choice if it continues to want access to the Pacific Rim.
Migraine has been sharing his local knowledge on the Rim's view that China is a bully to be wary of. Will an American/European axis be better that CIR access for South East Asia? I guess we will soon find out.
What concerns me the most is that China has been planning the future of the world for the past 40 years if not more, while Europe and America have been squabbling over domestic issues. If Europe and America don't get their poop together in a hurry, the roadmap has already been set.