Obsidian Energy Ltd T.OBE

Alternate Symbol(s): OBE

Obsidian Energy Ltd. is a Canada-based exploration and production company. The Company operates in one segment, to explore for, develop and hold interests in oil and natural gas properties and related production infrastructure in the Western Canada Sedimentary Basin directly and through investments in securities of subsidiaries holding such interests. It has a portfolio of assets producing around 35,700 barrels of oil equivalent (boe) per day. Its operating areas include Cardium, Peace River and Viking areas of Alberta. Its Cardium asset is a fully delineated and de-risked asset. It is focused on manufacturing repeatable low-decline and high-netback light-oil wells across its Cardium land base. The Viking is a light oil, horizontal development play located in central Alberta. Its operations are focused on the Esther area. Peace River is a stable, cold-flow, base production asset. It operates on a contiguous and an acreage within the heart of the Peace River Oilsands region.

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Obsidian Energy Ltd > Kavern 23

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Comment by kavern23on Mar 15, 2022 8:17pm

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Post# 34516992

RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:Kavern 23

The market is pricing OBE like it will CF $4/share for annual funds flow...

I havent modeled funds flow but if I did model OBE....I would use commodity prices similar to Q4 of 2021 or even lower for Q3 and Q4 of 2022.

Caution is good right now with the state of world economies.

I wish OBE had more NG hedged for the summer.

I am 90% sure Q1 of 2022 will be the highest NG is all year.

I think using a 400M annual funds flow is more realistic (could be debated I am too high at 400 and I would likely agree) number. I am mean that is almost double their 2021 funds flow and at 80 bucks guidance is only for 345 funds flow.

I do think OBE will have great drilling sucess and they are still going with 4 rigs...so production should be there.

I should be able to run and get February numbers anyday now...usually 18th of the month....

JohnJBond wrote: OBE is looking at Q1/22 funds flow around $1.5/share

Annualize that and its $6/share.

$9 is 1.5X funds flow. You are not going to see that very often. When you do, if you sit back thinking it might go to 1x funds flow, you will watch opportunites come and go, while you sit and do nothing.

The above numbers are where we are right now - today.

After Q1 comes out, and we get some guidance on production in Q2 and prices in Q2, then those numbers will get bigger. For example Q2/22 funds flow will be closer to $2 than $1.5. That means annualized is closer to $8 than $6. AND that means the chance of seeing a price in the $8's is even more unlikley.

This trend continues in Q3 and Q4 as production increases (not to mention oil price).