JayBanks wrote:
McRambus wrote:
Sir. Math problem? You make me laugh. Go back and do more research. Lot of misinformstion in your post, just like the last time you posted. Half the decline is the big drop in iron ore prices and general commodities rout today. Look at CIA, fell over 6%. You do not know what you are investing in.
When I said 'math problem' it was in reference to the dividend announced and the income that was passing through the royalty entity which was discussed in an excellent post on why the payout maths dropped here:
borne2run wrote: LIF is a royalty company with a variable dividend that has 2 components.
1. Royalties on product sold by Iron Ore Company of Canada (IOC).
2. Dividends received from IOC - Labrador Iron Ore owns approx 15% of IOC.
The first component will generate a quarterly dividend of roughly 25 to 50 cents, depending on iron ore pricing and pellet premiums.
In 2022 Q1, IOC did not declare a dividend despite being very profitable. The LIF quarterly report alluded to the reasons. IOC plans an intensive CAPEX program in excess of $600 million; analysts were expecting CAPEX spending of approx $400 million. IOC is therefore hoarding cash to fund the capital projects. When completed, the projects will increase mining capacity and reduce operating costs, which should result in higher margins in the future.
In summary, the 50 cent declared dividend was inline with LIF's revenues (royalty income but no IOC dividend) less overhead expenses.
I see you have an issue with reading and comprehension, I also stated twice in my post "I'm not holding" and "I've sat this out waiting"... I'll say it again maybe you will understand it this way:
I AM NOT INVESTED IN THIS NAME CURRENTLY!
The of the main reasons are I needed to spend more time watching and seeing how the price action moves when we see a decline in the variable dividend and also get more understand of what's going on here within the holding which PileOfShit and the above post are excellent with info among other sources.
You're putting yesterday's nearly 18% decline on the 'big' iron ore movement of a couple percent?
The current over night iron ore action is down 8.5%, if that holds your really not gonna like the Tuesday movement.
There is many reasons for the price movements here, but the royalty and IOC are healthy so that's not an issue (it's actually very positive the funding plan for a positive future), the commodity price is anouther, amount of ore being moved is a significant factor which I do not know much about but seems pretty solid as I haven't noticed anyone raise flags on that and finally the payout and investor reactions to it moving up, holding or in the case yesterday it's large decline and the subsequent reaction of investors.
The last point seems like the biggest influence since it was the largest volume of shares exchanged since the million shares moved a couple days following the cut 3 months ago when the iron ore price was rising, and that's bypassing the fact that on Feb 15th the price of iron ore dropped over 7% yet the shares of LIF didn't really react and were traded more thinly and actually rose before the end of the week fall off.
To me it seems there was somewhat of an investor transition 3 months ago as it seems several entered or increased positions feeling that there was an opportunity at that point because the ore price moving up, the payout decline was shaking out weaker hands and that the decline in payout would be temporary, I believe a few in here discussed interest in adding and jumping in on what they felt was a temporary pull back (as was I but felt there was likely more downside coming in price action and questing the payout). Judging by the major volume today, many of those shares jumped out with short term profits seeing that the decline in payout got worse which was compounded by the ore price decline and likely some influence also on geopolitical events that may effect the metals market going forward.
Knowing now that the further decline in payout seems like it will be a medium term thing, maybe most of the year or longer, with an outlook at of a positive future longer out, I have time to consume and learn more info and watch how several other factors play out.
CIA is a producer/explorer (which I know little about) and in my look at CIA thier price action seems more directly based on the ore price movement as 6% decline is closer to a 2-3% fall with what looks like normal volume (this also mirrors a similar action last week on a 1.6% price move) which doesn't seem to shed light to suggest why LIF fell 17+% on that same 2-3% movement. Seems like there are more things going on in LIF and if they aren't things that I've been discussing, please enlighten. (I have oil/gas producers and a royalty in the sector and held anouther royalty I jumped out of a few weeks ago, the royalties seem to follow the underlying commodity action much more softly and somewhat disconnect at times based on income/payout information, where as the producers more often than not move inline daily and usually stronger both ways than the commodity itself unless corporate information comes avalible)
Please point out all my misinformation (when your done laughing of course) it won't hurt my feelings, I'm interested in learning and hearing more. For the most part I've been making personal opinions based on information that I'm seeing and asking questions I have. My opinions and interpretations maybe wrong, but obviously I'm opening things up for discussions on why they are wrong or may have some credibility and promoting more information getting out here while also gaining more understanding myself which I believe is the purpose of the message board.