Merck potential bidder for Briacell Merck as potential bidder for Briacell makes strategic sense:
1) Merck was already a partner in study with Briacell with their drug Keytruda
2) Keytruda sales will be $17 billion in 2022 and rising.
https://www.axios.com/keytruda-sales-merck-drug-prices-b1d81138-5e88-43fa-bbb5-d074ecee713b.html 3) Very little cost for Merck to buyout Briacell if it offers combination therapy value
4) Keytruda patent expires in 2028, Briacell combination therapy could extend life of valuable drug
5) Briacell expects further results in 2022, then study design and carry out for FDA to take 3 more years. That is 2023 + 3 years gives 2026 or so timeframe and plenty of time for Merck to get approval and extend life of its most valuable drug.
Current market cap of BCTX is $120 million.
I expect a bidding war for exclusivisity for BCTX technology this year from all checkpoint inhibitor pharmaceutical companies (Merck, Incyte - both of which have studies with Briacell already, also Bristol-Myers Squibb, Sanofi, Gilead, and Glaxo have already made deals, see below).
There have been at least 4 major checkpoint inhibitor deals in last two years, average deal value was for
$1.67 billion! Average upfront payment was for
$281 million. Three of these deals were for Phase 1 drugs.
https://www.nature.com/articles/d43747-021-00110-1 Bristol-Myers Squibb, Sanofi, Gilead, and Glaxo have already made deals as you see, Merck more likely to secure its own. Precident is set.
Results of deals:
1. Glaxo/iTeos deal - stock price (ITOS) jumped 50%, peaked up 150%.
2. Bristol-Myers Squibb/Agenus deal - stock price (AGEN) jumped 25%, peaked up 115%
3. Sanofi/Biond deal - stock price (BVXV) rose 150%
4. Gilead/Arcus deal - stock price (RCUS) jumped 100%, peaked up 150%.
Some of these even had strong share price rises into the deals, like RCUS.