The Transition Tracker
Energy Transition Charts, Comparatives, and Commentary
TD Investment Conclusion
In the following pages, we summarize several pricing benchmarks and data sets that are relevant to our Clean Technology coverage universe, as well as provide an update on sector valuations and comparatives. In this week's edition, we highlight notable changes to Clean Technology pricing benchmarks and recent announcements from Clean Technology sector companies.
Notable Changes in Pricing Benchmarks
1) Diesel Prices Spike: In Exhibit 3, we highlight the spike in biodiesel and renewable diesel implied margins resulting from a spike in diesel prices (+37% w/w, ended March 4) following the sanctions placed on Russian oil imports, raising concerns about global energy security, including refined products. We note that soybean feedstock margins remained relatively muted due to rising feedstock costs.
2) LCFS Prices Remain Volatile: In Exhibit 2b, implied RNG revenue from manure- related feedstocks trended lower week-over-week, driven primarily by an ~6% decline in the California LCFS price (Exhibit 1a), combined with an ~3.5% decline in the D3 RIN prices (Exhibit 1e).
Clean Technology Sector News and Highlights
1) Anaergia Inc. (ANRG-T, SPECULATIVE BUY, $40.00 target price) provided an operations update, including a $45 million capital sales order and positive tailwinds from the REPowerEU program (full report).
2) Ballard (BLDP-Q, SPECULATIVE BUY, US$17.00 target price) reported Q4/21 results that featured lower-than-expected gross margins, with order flow expected to increase from 2023 (Q4/21 Results, Estimate Changes).
3) Xebec Inc. (XBC-T, SPECULATIVE BUY, $3.00 target price) reported Q4/21 results that featured higher-than-expected revenues and lower-than-expected gross margins (full report).
4) Inter Pipeline and Rockpoint Gas Storage submitted a proposal to the Alberta Energy Regulator for a local CCUS project with annual carbon storage capacity of 6 million tonnes (press release).
5) Loop Energy, Inc. (LPEN-T, not covered) is powering Mobility & Innovation's H2Bus with its S300 Series hydrogen fuel cell system and electric motor (press release). Innotest AG intends to purchase a S300 Series system for integration into its Home Power Energy System (press release).
6) Aemetis, Inc. (AMTX-N, not covered) signed a contract valued at $250 million to provide Qantas Airlines with 35 million gallons of blended sustainable aviation fuel over seven years (press release).