RE:This info is from another VSBY investor....... Edited comment
Magnus Nystrom Good morning, the best way to show this is in my recently updated model which reflects the reduction in available media slots available to 14 and using $50/slot for a total of $700/month /store.
I have used the published cadence for the calculations, so while Jay uses the gross revenue I break it down based on the information received. For 2021/22 with AGIS handling the CAPEX as OPEX, total expenses for the 2 years based on 15,000 total installs would be $19.5M using the EC number of $130/month/store covering CAPEX amortization and network fees, servicing,etc. with total revenue at $85.75M. This is assuming all 14 slots are full for $700/month. This leaves $66.25M. The question is , when is the distribution going out to the JV partners, and the EC report says not until 2024?
In the WSR interview with Jay on Dec.16 he advised the BOD of Winkel had not finalized the amount and dates of the distribution or dividend but was suggesting Q1/Q2 of 2022 which matches up to my model estimates.
And if you wait until 2024 at that point in time would have accrued around $500M net. In the end, the EC forecast of no distribution until 2024 is frankly nonsense.
I have corresponded with Jay on this issue and he advises he will get something in the MD&A for Q4.
Now, unless there are further expenses that ARE NOT included in the $130/month OPEX number, these numbers should be correct.
However, the cadence then becomes the issue. Q3 indicated 248 installs, but Jay has stated that the target for 2021 of 4000-5000 should be close. If we hit 4000, then the model needs to be adjusted to reflect the reduction of revenue and OPEX, but with the cadence running at 200/week current, it looks reasonable to assume 14,000 by 2022 yearend. The EC report reflects a conservative 9800.
The key to all of this and the 2022 budget will be the distribution amount and "when" from Winkel because the revenue is so high. Even if the revenue is 50% of my model it would still reflect around $1.0M in licensing fees and $12M in distributions in 2022....BUT WHEN IS THE DISTRIBUTION FROM WINKEL AND HOW MUCH?
So while we await AGIS, 911inform, CaaS, etc,etc,etc, ABI is the foundation, and we are missing a lot of information.
We need to remember that on the WSR interview on Nov.10, Jay gave the following: " not a projection but for 2022 low end $25-$30M, high end $65-70M. Good path to a $50M run rate".This means that Q4-2022 would have to have revenue of $12.5M, and the EC report is way off these numbers directly from the CEO.
EC gives $1.8M for 2021 and $11.7M revenue for 2022 revenue. Again, we are missing a lot of information.
Just for fun, I will also add that AGIS has multiple contracts in place and could value up to $1.0B very quickly, VSBLTY owns 10%.