RE:Current price @ $0.96White Tundra has a great model and all assumptions are solid. The one area I question is that of using a FCF multiple of 8. Perhaps a multiple of 6 is more appropriate given the ESG investors pressure on banks and self imposed investors.
I believe the current value of PNE is approx $1.50 and would be a fair price for the stock as it stars to return capital to shareholders. Until the gerneralist investor sheds their ESG influenced inhibitions, a multiple of 8 will remain out of reach. But the company still is trading at a very low multiple and is 33% discounted from a $1.50. It should be easy for this stock to gain 50% from where it is to move to $1.50.
The European gas problem is not going away Only the USA is in a position to replace Russian flows of Natural Gas in the immediate to near term (next 2 yrs). Investors who have not recognized the mountain of cash that PNE will continue to accumulate will be impossible to ignore at some point. In the meantime its a great opportunity to acquire additional share on the dip.
2022 summer gas prices and winter prices for 2022-23 have nowhere to go but up. Any response by shale gas drillers will easily be mitigated by LNG exports continuing to grow and take any excess production off shore.
Putin will turn off Nordstream 1 soon enough. Then Uerope will starve for gas. The world is against Putin... If Russia can't get paid then of course they won't deliver. Russia needs to hurt the West in any way he can. The last resort would be to come to direct blows with NATO (lets hope not). But as the financial situation in Russia becomes worse and if Putin starts to lose the propeganda narative with his own population... expect him to resort to desperate measures (tactical nuclear weapon). It is truly a scary time which most of us have not realized.