Stay focused on the factsWhat we want from the phase 1a is an indication that TH-1902 has a future. We just want to know that it is not a bust as that would certainly be bad for TH. But I don't even think we have to wait for that to be confirmed by the company as they have already functionally confirmed that TH-1902 has a future. How bright that future will be is yet to be determined but it is a drug that is moving onto the next phase of FDA testing, indicating it is safe. That is the first hurdle all drugs have to jump and based on the planning TH is already engaged in for not only phase 1b but phase 2 trials, they clearly know with a high degree of certainty the drug is moving forward. So, we will be talking about TH-1902 for a while here.
I believe the inclusion of the additional data on the trial slide of the most recent corporate presentation also functionally confirms that TH-1902 worked to some degreee on at least patient 2. Indeed, that is probably why they put that presentation update out - to give us confidence that TH-1902 is on track. So, if patient number 2 saw some benefit, and they almost had to or they would not have gone through 4 rounds of testing, then we can check another box off with a high degree of confidence - that of proof of concept. From the beginning we worried that because of t he way the trial was structured we might not see that in the phase 1a, but I think you can take it to the bank now that at least one patient reactedin some positive way to the drug which indicated TH-1902 was indeed getting into cancer cells and having some level of impact. Time will tell just how extensive that impact will be but clearly something positive was going on with patient 2. I am not expecting the benefit for patient 2 to be substantial since the trial was not geared to determine benefit and most of the doses given were at the lower level, but we don't need substantial benefit at this point. We just need to know that TH-1902 worked something like it was supposed to based on the pre-clinical work.
So, for any of you who are stressing out because the share price is falling and you think something terrible has happened, I would suggest you think hard about what the company has actually already revealed to us about the pahse 1a and realize that we already know in general terms that the drug is safe enough to move forward to phase 1b and that it showed some degree of benefit in at least one patient which indicates it is working as expected.
Stock prices sometimes get drunk and act stupid in the short term. They are therefore often a really bad source of critical information about the long term situation yet many people still listen to the drunk rather than factual data staring them right in the face. Don't be that person as you will likely really regret it.