I suspect we have proof of concept alreadyNow, I know our scientists here are going to remain on edge until they receive official confirmation from TH whenever they release the phase 1a results, but I believe they have already effectively told us they have at least achieved proof of concept by sharing that info on patient #2 in the recent corporate presentation. My guess that was the whole point of putting out a new presentation - to calm everyone's nerves about this and encourage us that the future should be very interesting. My working definition of proof of concept is that they have seen the drug enter the cancer cells and not get pushed back out before they can start damaging those cells. Given how many cycles patient #2 had, they may have also seen actual signs of efficacy. If patient #2 did not show some signs of efficacy, that would actually be a bit disapointing given how long they were on the drug (I know, most of the doses this patient recieved were low but given that the drug is supposed to concentrate in cancer cells even low doses should be beneficial as indicated in the preclinical work).
So, for me, it is just a matter of time before we hear good news. Now, I am realistic enough to know that such good news is likely to be accompanied by other news that may be less thrilling and which we will debate here on this board with vigor. rare is the drug trial that only produces good news and rarer still in phase 1 when the investigators are flying somewhat blind. But I think TH has already told us TH-1902 has a very interesting future because it works at least a little like it is supposed to.
So, if I am right, we should have a lot to sort out in future months, most notably how does this whole Sort1+ platform move ahead, and at what speed, and how does the company finance itself during this period. But until TH confirms what they have, in my view, loudly hinted at in the corprate presentation, I imagine we will have continued, but likely unnecessary, teeth gnashing until the confirmation of the loud hint comes out. But that is not too far away at this point (probably about 1 month from now if TH does not encounter any problems with the six patients and two months if they do - today is the one month anniversery from when TH told us 2-3 months).
Meanwhile, we have to wait for the seller who is depressing the share price to finish up their work. I am aware of who that seller is and I can tell you that they are not selling because they have analyzed the situation closely and know something bad that we are currently unaware of. Basically, a reasonably large holder changed their advisor (another advisor that I know) and the new advisor is not familiar with TH and is restructuring the portfolio into the holdings the new advisor likes. That process might end soon or it may drag out a while longer, but do not let any weakness in the share price freak you out. If you have the capacity to buy, it represents a good opportuntunity to do so (especially with likely positive news on the near term horizon) since the seller is not being exceptionally clever in how they are going about selling this position.