RE:Initial Takegudisgood wrote: I've just glanced through the report and listened to the conference call. Some initial thoughts here but there's a lot to read (they released the annual information form as well).
- Not really sure why the first analyst was surprised by Q4. Who really knows exactly what to expect given all the factors to consider? This result was definitely in the range of "not surprising" for me at least.
- Meanwhile the revenue guidance for 2022 is, I guess, surprisingly low (7-9% increase)? Since Exelon should be transferred over in June 2022, we're supposed to see some growth from that alone, aren't we? Plus this will be a full year of Exelon, whether it's net profit or actual sales.
- In the Annual Information Form, there's now a pipeline list of generics products either in development, under regulatory review. or pending launch The expected launch date for these products ranges from 2023 to 2025. Mostly oncology/hematology.
- We're not going to continue with the HIV drugs, will have a couple of points of an effect on sales.
- A generic drug ("Rembre") was launched in Colombia in Feb 2022.
- The fund investments have been quite incredible so far. We've invested $147M to-date and received $119M back with $151M still in the funds (which of course may change significantly before they're liquated). After receiving $119M, we still have more in the funds than we put in them!
- Still no resolution to the tax issue!
- About $22M from Exelon last year (purchase price was $217M). Quite acceptable. And maybe we can do even better once the transfers happen.
- Strong deal flow according business development team, they're busy & optimistic.
- Concerns about how price regulations could affect the pharma industry.
Yes - good points.
Just to add a few thoughts ...
Weak hands (simple retail investors) get spooked and they are going to exit as quickly as they entered. Their shares will be picked up by stronger hands. Cycle repeats here.
Sure we'd like to see higher revenue but Q3 was high - there will be fluctuation (especially until we settle at some slower future growth rate). Until then, we'll likely be all over the board.
Guessing that guidance was sellected with the intent to beat.
Branded Generics will be a large part of our future business.
Fund investments - cash inflow will be a nice bonus for years to come - just very difficult to predict - rollercoaster ride at times.
Taxes are paid - if we get cash back on reassessment it will just be a bonus. Can't hold our breath.
Price regulation - I'm guessing the initial focus will be on Big Pharma and price gouging on very important and common medications (as we're seeing in the USA and discussions of specific high volume drugs) - but - tough to call how it will affect the industry as a whole.
Just a few thoughts.