EU & US LNG dealThe Canadian Gas market will remain strong 2022-2025 based on the last 2 days of anouncements.
1) EU agrees to buy energy as one buying entity for Gas & LNG
2) A proposed Law to be enacted which ensures EU storage is filled:
a) to 80% durring the 2022 storage filling season (April 1-Oct 31)
b) to 90% durring the 2023 filling season
c) Gasprom to give up ownership of German storage facilities to ensure Russia can't play with storage levles and manipulate pricing
d) Russia to be eliminated as a supplier by 2027.... This indicates Nordstream 2 is dead and Nordstream 1 will be rendered obsolete by 2027.
e) EU to cut Russian gas imports by 66% in 2022 and will not pay in Rubles.
3) Germany & France have different positions on market prices vs subsidies/pricing caps.
4) US has agreed to sell 15 Billion cubic meters of gas to the EU in 2022.
5) US to fast track new LNG projects
6) Oil Rigs rise to by 7 and are 253 rigs higher than last year. Frac Spread fell from 272 to 266 as number ofwells completed drops off... an indication that DUCs are at a low point and future complettions must come from new drilling.
7) Production remains flat at 11.6 million bpd... DUC's were not enough to replenish the rapid production declines
8) Canada to increase production by only 300,000 bpd to offset the export losses of 4-5 million bpd... but lets acknowledge that China will buy that oil at a "sanction risk" discount
9) CPC (Russia/Kazachstan) is a real loss of 1.1 million barrels per day... 2-3 months to repair facilities.
Outcome... we are at a real risk of energy security for the global economy... Prices will remain high... GDP growth is at risk but demand destruction has yet to be confirmed.
Polar Vortex is colapsing and sending cold air to eastern US... gas prices will remain high as storage in 20% below normal in the US and any excess production will be taken up with increased LNG exports (whenever additional capacity allows).
I think we need to consider these items when thinking about strip price in 2022-2024... PNE valuations likely to climb... dare I say over $2.00... I'd like to see some models with canadian gas at $6.00