Objective look at Q1 possible results1. The company has indicated that Q1 and Q4 will be weaker than Q2 and Q3 because of scheduling issues. That suggests AISC will be higher in Q1 spreading cash costs over reduced production.
2. Average zinc prices are over $1.70 for the quarter.
A quarter of sales will be at 1.25 from Caribou, the rest at 1.70. Remember, these are accounting numbers only, which try to reflect reality, but can’t take into account actual sales/production/settlement payments etc with the forward accounting assumptions which try to reflect future settlement payments which are 3-4 months later.
3. No matter how you slice and dice it, it seems clear that, given market conditions of supply and demand, energy issues in Europe, and market disruptions generally in base metals, TV is going to be generating very amazing cash flows and p/e’s in 2022.
4. Turning to other market influences, the RP2 financing, which overhangs the market, should be arranged on favourably terms now that cash flow is so impressive.
5. The ROL at Caribou will be updated in H1. It will either be terminated as not viable, or will have a PEA that suggests something positive with further capex down the road.
I welcome any and all reasoned comment.