RE:Diversify? I am indifferent between selling in 2024 or going alone. I agree with SportsMathew, Tou and Arx may not be interesrted. Tou shareholders would have to give up a full year without special dividends. I can only see Shell wanting to spend $1.5B.
I think in 2023 we would start to see in which direction Crew wants to go for year 2024.
Being acquired
40,000 boe/d
No debt
No hedging in place
Going alone
Talking about expanding beyond 40,000 boe/d
No need to bring debt to zero
Hedging in place
Talking about share buyback
If Crew wants to go alone, they have to have an aggressive share buyback program in 2024. They can't keep expanding non stop, keeping high debt, and when oil is down below $50 and nat gas goes back to $2.50 (I am sure it will happen again in the future) and then Crew is back in a messy situation, with very low profitability despite producing more.
sportstermathew wrote: I am 100% oil and gas and some cash.
Most is in two stocks CR and PEY as some are also here.
I plan on being here mid year, end of this year and same next year so will have to take the bumps along the way if I am ever going to reach my targets. Used to own VET, GXE and a few others so made money on the oil types.
Along with very small positions in BNE and FRU I bought some JOY yesterday, used to own it a while back, dang. They have done some private deals and seem to have contacts and be good at it. Whether it is overpriced presently, not sure so holding back to double position under $5 maybe. If not and it keeps moving forward great.
I also plan on looking at several other firms for small positions on any dips??
It will be very interesting to see if any changes to plans by CR in the next month or so with regards to production levels? increased CAPEX? or using the extra funds gained from current pricing to reduce debt levels meaningfully.
Even though CR has done well from the covid crisis period, many will agree that it has been held down due to its debt levels over the last six months as it was $3.45 in Sept 2021 and even at $4.25 not a huge increase compared to many others. It did dip into the $2.75 range for a short time frame where some may have been lucky to acquire more.
So many may agree that with any kind of good news of increased drilling, great wells beyond expectations, deals, better prices, you name it we could get to $6 very easily. I would rather be slow and steady with pressure building to the upside than overeach on price to only lose it all.
Some are of the opinion that CR will get to 40,000 and sell out. Very possible but in today's environment how many large companies are going to spend 1 billion or more knowing full well that shareholders are not fond of debt anymore?
So it would have to come from cash or cashflow or combination with share sale. As many prices are still quite low it is like giving the company away cheaply to expand.
$6 to $8 is very doable assuming price of NG does not fall dramatically. Futures are not pointing to this for at least the next 12 months or more.
Thoughts?