CIBCEQUITY RESEARCH
March 27, 2022 Industry Update
Global Food Insecurity Concerns Growing
Key Points
The Russian invasion of Ukraine and the prolonged absence of Ukrainian
crops (collectively Ukraine/Russia represent ~16% and ~26% of global corn
and wheat exports, respectively) is likely to strain world grain supplies for
months to come. Given the complexities of planting during war (shortages of
labour, fuel, and crop inputs, damage to infrastructure, shift in crop mix to
support the local population, and even reports of the Russian army placing
land mines on farmland to prevent cropping), Ukraine’s spring planting could
decline by as much as 50%, affecting corn in particular (planted April/ May).
The winter wheat harvest and planting (planted September/ October) is also
at significant risk if the war is prolonged.
Russian Grain Exports Slowing But Continue To Flow: AgFlow estimates
about 73 vessels carrying crops like wheat departed Russia in the first two
weeks of March, versus 220 during the same period last year. USDA
reduced estimated wheat exports from both Russia and Ukraine by 7Mt—or
nearly 12% of pre-invasion projections. Further reductions are likely if the
conflict is prolonged.
Could The U.S./EU Temporarily Suspend Biofuel Mandates?: The U.S.
government is currently studying waiving biofuels blending requirements
under the RFS (also suggested by Dr. Glauber, formerly the top USDA
economist) in order to curb food inflation. U.S. corn used for ethanol & by-
product production is ~35%-36% of total U.S. corn demand. Such a move
(including a potential reduction for a temporary period and not complete
suspension) will likely bring sharp pushback from farm groups and
lawmakers (therefore not very likely at this point).
U.S. Prospective Plantings Report Out March 31: USDA will publish its
March 31 Prospective Plantings Report next week. Consensus estimates are
92.0MM acres for corn and 88.9MM acres for soybeans (a record total for
the two crops combined).
Potash Prices Hit New Record Highs On Supply Uncertainty: Brazil spot
prices increased to an average $1,124/t (up $60/t W/W), a new record high.
With Russian output typically 1Mt/month, CRU notes that Russian mines
may be forced to shut down as buyers and shippers back away and there is
simply a lack of storage for product.
Nitrogen Prices Continue To Rise: Urea prices were up $11/st (+2% W/W)
in U.S. NOLA, and up $150/t (+20% W/W) in China. The U.S. Tampa April
ammonia contract settlement could be as high as $1,600/t CFR, up $465/t
from the previous monthly price.