Reply to gonatgasgogonatgasgo wrote:
"Are you saying if Crew was debt free, the EV of the debt free company would be 20% than it is right now? As a result, the stock price would be ($1,048M / 155M shares) $6.75*1.20= $ 8.11?"
Not exactly. What i meant was the metrics oldnagger used for his assessment, meaning because Leucrotta is all gas compared to Crew's 80% AND the fact that LXE is bsaically debt free (decom not included here) compared to Crew's ~$375M it should be justified enough to discount the per flowing barrel of $36690 given to LXE by 20%, which would more or less equal the ~$31k oldnagger had set for Crew. That's one way of looking at it. Another is the following
Assuming that Crew has the same production profile as Leucrotta, and thereby giving them the same per flowing barrel that LXE was given for TO, which is reasonable as they're more or less in the same producing area. At $37K per flowing barrel, with a current production of 30kboepd for Crew. You get $1,1B, deduct all significant debt, which is both longterm + decom and we get a total value of about $670M for Crew or $4.20 per share, Which amazingly is exaclt where's it's been trading. So my numbers are pretty accurate & fully valued in those terms. The DIFFERENCE of whether Crew gets something above that will come from o&g reserves & land, where Crew's portfolio is much greater than Leucrotta's by miles. Of course these figures assume holding an oil price of at least $75us wti and ng above $4.
"2 years from now, Crew should be debt free and production will be higher than it is now."
I highly doubt Crew becomes debt free within two years. They've been having trouble or unwilling to reduce debt for the last two years. So doubtful.
GLTA