Crane Co T.CR

Primary Symbol: CR Alternate Symbol(s): CXT

Technology Scientific & Technical Instruments

Crane Company is a manufacturer of engineered components for mission-critical applications focused on the aerospace, defense, space and process flow industry end markets. Its segments include Aerospace & Electronics, Process Flow Technologies, and Engineered Materials. The Aerospace & Electronics segment supplies critical components and systems, including original equipment and aftermarket parts, primarily for the commercial aerospace, and the military aerospace, defense and space markets. The Process Flow Technologies segment is a provider of engineered fluid handling equipment for critical applications. The Engineered Materials segment manufactures fiberglass-reinforced plastic panels and coils, primarily for use in the manufacturing of recreational vehicles, truck bodies and trailers (Transportation). It also designs and manufacturers multi-stage lubrication pumps and lubrication system components technology for critical aerospace and defense applications.

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Crane Co > Reply to gonatgasgo

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Comment by gonatgasgoon Mar 29, 2022 9:07am

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Post# 34554821

RE:Reply to gonatgasgo

Thanks MrMomo for the explanation. I would like to continue the discussion on the following point you made.

"2 years from now, Crew should be debt free and production will be higher than it is now."

I highly doubt Crew becomes debt free within two years. They've been having trouble or unwilling to reduce debt for the last two years. So doubtful.

You are right that Crew has never really reduced debt from one quarter to the next. However, for 2022, AFF could be in the $250M range and capex (based on their guidance) is $95M. As a result, what do you think they will do with the extra $155M?

We know it is not share buy back or a dividend payment. There is only capex or paying down the debt left. If they increase capex (which I doubt), their production will exceed their infrastructure capacity. As a result, I think the only option is to pay down the debt. I would like to hear your point.

mrmomo wrote: gonatgasgo wrote:
"Are you saying if Crew was debt free, the EV of the debt free company would be 20% than it is right now? As a result, the stock price would be ($1,048M / 155M shares) $6.75*1.20= $ 8.11?"

Not exactly. What i meant was the metrics oldnagger used for his assessment, meaning because Leucrotta is all gas compared to Crew's 80% AND the fact that LXE is bsaically debt free (decom not included here) compared to Crew's ~$375M it should be justified enough to discount the per flowing barrel of $36690 given to LXE by 20%, which would more or less equal the ~$31k oldnagger had set for Crew. That's one way of looking at it. Another is the following

Assuming that Crew has the same production profile as Leucrotta, and thereby giving them the same per flowing barrel that LXE was given for TO, which is reasonable as they're more or less in the same producing area. At $37K per flowing barrel, with a current production of 30kboepd for Crew. You get $1,1B, deduct all significant debt, which is both longterm + decom and we get a total value of about $670M for Crew or $4.20 per share, Which amazingly is exaclt where's it's been trading. So my numbers are pretty accurate & fully valued in those terms. The DIFFERENCE of whether Crew gets something above that will come from o&g reserves & land, where Crew's portfolio is much greater than Leucrotta's by miles. Of course these figures assume holding an oil price of at least $75us wti and ng above $4.

"2 years from now, Crew should be debt free and production will be higher than it is now."

I highly doubt Crew becomes debt free within two years. They've been having trouble or unwilling to reduce debt for the last two years. So doubtful.

GLTA