RE:RE:RE:Reply to gonatgasgoThanks a lot MrMomo. I hope you spend more time on this board as your input/opinion is appreciated.
mrmomo wrote: gonatgasgo wrote:
"However, for 2022, AFF could be in the $250M range and capex (based on their guidance) is $95M. As a result, what do you think they will do with the extra $155M?We know it is not share buy back or a dividend payment. There is only capex or paying down the debt left. If they increase capex (which I doubt), their production will exceed their infrastructure capacity. As a result, I think the only option is to pay down the debt. I would like to hear your point."
Assuming your figures are accurate and Crew doesn't revise those numbers downward in the next 6 months, i expect the following. As capex has been greatly reduced by producers both in the US & Canada over the last 3 years, it wouldn't surprise me to see them increase the budget for Capex. So this would be one of the possible outcomes imo. But i don't believe all of it goes to Capex, some of it will be directed to debt reduction of their most costly debt. So the most probable outcome would be a mix of debt reduction & increasing Capex, which i would put at 70% probable. With the remaining 30% probability going to instituting a very small divyy payout. Which imo should not be totally ruled out. As this will be their only means for attracting potential investors to their company & stock in the new paradigm shift where investors are shunning anything fossil fuel related. This applies acrosss the board to all struggling ep's and not only to Crew. Hope this answers your question.
GLTA