Update (1210ET): Following Blinken's earlier urging to focus on Russia's "actions" on the ground and "not just what it says" coming out of the Istanbul talks, some top officials are charging that Russia's potential "compromises" being offered are but a ploy to buy more time on the battlefield.
Via Newswires: "Western official says nothing we have seen so far has demonstrated that Russia is particularly serious about peace talks and seems to be more of a tactical exercise to play for time."
Concerning a draft ceasefire deal in the works, each side has confirmed they will return to their respective capitals to discuss the proposals on the table. In terms of specifics, the following is from Kiev-based "Ukrainian Independent Information Agency of News" or UNIAN's transcript of the interview in English...
- Ukraine needs guarantees that are more solid than NATO's Article 5
- Guarantees must be in the form of a treaty signed by all guarantors
- In the event of an aggression against Ukraine, consultations must be held within 3 days, after which guarantor states provide assistance in the form of armed forces, weapons, airspace closure.
- Among guarantors Ukraine envisions: Britain, China, Russia, US, France, Turkey, Germany, Canada, Italy, Poland.
- Temporarily guarantees will not apply to Crimea and occupied Donbass
- Guarantor will not oppose and will in fact help Ukraine's accession to the EU
Meanwhile, the US has issued statements suggesting Russia's military escalation in Ukraine has only continued...
RUSSIA HAS REPEATEDLY FIRED HYPERSONIC MISSILES AT UKRAINIAN MILITARY TARGETS - SENIOR U.S. GENERAL
At the same time, concerns grow that Biden's series of what the White House has sought to walk back as emotional gaffes are only serving to escalate US-Russia tensions, already on a knife-edge.
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Update (1045ET): Not long after Washington downplayed reports of a Russian drawdown of troops around Kiev and Chernihiv, Interfax reports (citing Russia's top negotiator, Vladimir Medinsky) that the de-escalation doesn't necessarily mean a ceasefire is near.
He added that talks still have a long way to go.
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Update (1030ET): To be expected, it doesn't seem Washington shares in the optimism coming out of the day's concluded Russia-Ukraine talks in Istanbul, with Secretary of State Antony Blinken commenting negatively on Russian assertions that its military will draw down operations near Kiev and Chernihiv. Blinken while traveling in the Middle East said the US has not seen signs of "real seriousness from Russia" - this after the Pentagon also said it has yet to observe a reduction of fighting from Russian units near Kiev.
Blinken underscored in the fresh comments to reporters that the US and world must focus on "Russia's actions" and "not just what it says" or pledges at the negotiating table. Blinken also urged that Moscow must "end to aggression now" and "pull its forces back" immediately if there is to be progress.
In the scenario that Russia does follow through with its earlier in the day declaration that it will cut military operations around the two named major Ukrainian cities, it's likely to consolidate forces in the east in order to focus on the Donbas region. Russian deputy defense minister said the following Tuesday:
Alexander Fomin said the country has decided to "fundamentally cut back" operations to "increase mutual trust" at talks aimed at ending the fighting.
Within the last days, Russia's military stated it will start limiting the scope of operations to the Donbas, also as Kiev officials have accused the Kremlin of seeking to divide the country into East and West.
Russia analyst Michael Kofman said in the wake of the Istanbul negotiations: "...we are likely to see consolidation around Kyiv and an attempt by the Russian military to fix Ukrainian forces there, while shifting the bulk of available fighting power to Donbas.
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