RE:RE:Pieridae = Journey EnergyLet me throw some numbers around of a ship of flng type, being a conversion of older carrier:
$100M for the older ship (being a 15 years old) or $175M for a newer type with lower boil off
amounts.
$1.8B for the liquification of 0.3bcf/day.
assume: $2B costs.
length of time from order to construction end: 3.5-4 years.
once its up:
sourced gas: assume $4.0US.
transportation by pipe: $0.85US (I assume most will come from the u.s).
liquification: $0.60US (mostly for 10% of gas used for energy for liquification).
cost of equipment: $2B/12 years return/(0.3bcf/day*360 days) = $1.54/mcf
interest on equipment: assume 6% interest and 12 years duration: $2B/2 (debt paid in straight line
over 12 years) x 0.06 x 12 years / (0.3bcf/day x 12 years x 360 days) = $0.56/mcf
lng transport cost: $0.85US
Cost: 4 + 0.85 + 0.60 + 1.54 + 0.56 + 0.85 = $8.40/mcf
That is before profits. to make it profitable, one would assume $9.40.
At energy equivalency of 1:6, equal to oil cost of $56.4 per barrel.
When I ran some numbers for Russian piped gas, I came up with the same number. that is also
the number for 70% of oil price of ~$80.
Assuming ownership of flng and 20 years life, after year 12 costs go down by > $1.0 which becomes
operating profit.
assuming 50% ownership of flng:
year 1 - 12 npv10: $54M x ((1-0.1)^1+...+(1-0.1)^12 = ) 6.46 = $348M
year 13 - 20 npv10: $108M x ((1-0.1)^13+..+(1-0.1)^20 = ) 1.44 = $155M
assuming 5 years to start: (1-0.1)^5 x ($348M + $155M) = $267M npv10.
Hope that helps. what is needed is a guaranteed buyer, not government assistance.