RE:RE:TD Moves PT to $1.25for a small cap co, earnings are useless...look at Ebitda and deduct cash expenses (Interest Expense on 2nd Lien Bonds, Cash Taxes and Capex). TD is so far behind that they are looking for 2022 Ebitda of $103mm...about the same as BNS (who still has a PT of $0.45).
I think they will avg C$13.75/lb in 1Q22 with C$ NDCC of $5.31/lb = C$ Ebitda of $78.14mm (Street wide estimate is avg of $45mm).
If you look at it quarterly for balance of yea-->, ~4,250 tons of Ni at U$14.70/lb x fx of 1.25 = C$18.36 less C$ NDCC of 5.31 = C$ 120.848mm Ebitda/Q. (Do your own calcuations).
2022 Ebitda of $440.7mm if Ni stays in this area. And these guys are looking for $100mm Ebitda for the year?! There is ZERO upside built into this. Where will the stock be if they report anywhere close to these numbers? Try $5.00 min.
It happened in oil stocks that went 6x in 18mos...it will happen here too. It is all about the cash flows and free cash flow which will rapidly pay down debt this year (don't forget they will trip their covenant to buy back 2nd Liens at Par this year) and then buy back stock in 2023. At this Ni price, they will have enough FCF to buy back all the debt adn all the stock. I for one am not selling them or anyone else the stock at $0.75 when it should be worth $5.00 in short order once people clue into the torque this has.