RE:RE:RE:RE:Nine Days Out From Next UpdateBased on good quality second info I got sometime after the grants were given, they moved up the date simply to have them more aligned with their annual review process. That could be true and there is nothing more to it than that. Since we are paying close attention to everything and trying to read motivations into every action (which I believe is sensible to do), we can sometimes overreact to something that is, in the end, not as interesting as we initially thought.
palinc2000 wrote: That seemed like the only logical explanation at the time.......Another unlikely explanation would be that the timing of the option grants was just a ploy im expectations that markets would react positively thinking that positive results would be released prior to the usual dates of options grants.... I
qwerty22 wrote:
I'm not even sure you can think of the timing of the option grant as having anything to do with the cancer trial. Early Oct 21 they report first 420 patient had neutropenia. Late Feb 22 they reported they'd dropped back to 300 after enrolling 4 420 patients with AEs. Sounds like the option grant would have been right in the middle of that moment of uncertainty. I'm sure it was never in doubt they'd continue but I'm not sure you can say at that moment they felt they were on a clear path to a quick end.
palinc2000 wrote: I agree that Phase 1 a results will not be part of the Q-1 release......BTW they have not provided any explanation for the early grant of a huge number of options on December 1 st 2021 rather than March-April 2022....Since the currebt SP is about 25% lower than the exercise price it is obvious that they were expecting much earlier release of results which they assumed would have been positive...So it would seem that they were truthful in past cpmments but Murphy decided to pay a visit,,,,Murphy always seems to show up at the wrong time .....!!!
SPCEO1 wrote: If all has gone as well as the CMO expected it would with the last six patients at the 300mg dosage level, the phase 1a should be close to finishing up, if not actually finished, by the time we get the next quarterly update on 4/13. Now, it is much more likely it will not be finished up yet so TH will have to decide whether to give any meaningful updates or remain silent until the trial is officially completed sometime shortly after the 13th (hopefully - if the CMO got it wrong and one of the final patients had some difficulties, even ones not associated with the drug, then it will stretch on longer). I imagne they would have some positive language about the trial on the 13th but all in general terms just to build some anticipation. Then have a separate announcement when the trial is officially over. Maybe we will even get a separate conference call when the trial is over with Christian and Dr. Rothenberg on it (although I do not know if he contract allows for him to speak at such events).
We also have the AACR conference starting later this week. With the abstracts already available, the possibility of additional buzz around the conference may not be too great.
And, it looks like the large seller has completed their sales. Hopefully, that is correct and the stock can move higher.
We are about to enter a period of consequential news flow with the phase 1a results most importantly, a potential partnership deal with a Chinese drug company and a financing of some sort with some better analyst coverage associated with that, among other potential news items. With the seller apparently gone and promising news flow ahead, things could get much cheerier around here.