RE:RE:RE:Nine Days Out From Next UpdateThe basic problem TH has is that very few investors are paying attention to their company and those that are are already pretty fully positioned in the stock. TH has been pretty ineffective at creating a narrative around the stock that would attract new investors on a consistent basis. It has been abysmally ineffective in curating a flock of analysts to remain engaged in covering the stock and telling their clients about new promising developments about it. So, it is likely much harder to move a big position in the stock than it should be these days. Over the years, I have found it typically was not too hard to buy or sell significant quatities of the stock but I have not been a large seller for a long time.
SPCEO1 wrote: I am not sure. I was assuming the new manager would likely employ an algo that would get them out of t he stock before the second quarter started. Then the stock had a nice jump at the very end of the day on 3/31 and on 4/1 which seemed to me to confirm that theory. But it was only a theory and they may still have stock to move. Also, someone pointed out to me that a block of around 120,000 shares traded in Canada in late March and it is possible that was part of the selling too. One thing I do know is that it was right around 600,000 shares that needed to be sold, so if your calculations are correct, there may be more stock yet to sell.
Wino115 wrote: You sure about that seller? I was counting volume and making some assumptions and figured they may have only cleared about 250,000 shares.
SPCEO1 wrote: If all has gone as well as the CMO expected it would with the last six patients at the 300mg dosage level, the phase 1a should be close to finishing up, if not actually finished, by the time we get the next quarterly update on 4/13. Now, it is much more likely it will not be finished up yet so TH will have to decide whether to give any meaningful updates or remain silent until the trial is officially completed sometime shortly after the 13th (hopefully - if the CMO got it wrong and one of the final patients had some difficulties, even ones not associated with the drug, then it will stretch on longer). I imagne they would have some positive language about the trial on the 13th but all in general terms just to build some anticipation. Then have a separate announcement when the trial is officially over. Maybe we will even get a separate conference call when the trial is over with Christian and Dr. Rothenberg on it (although I do not know if he contract allows for him to speak at such events).
We also have the AACR conference starting later this week. With the abstracts already available, the possibility of additional buzz around the conference may not be too great.
And, it looks like the large seller has completed their sales. Hopefully, that is correct and the stock can move higher.
We are about to enter a period of consequential news flow with the phase 1a results most importantly, a potential partnership deal with a Chinese drug company and a financing of some sort with some better analyst coverage associated with that, among other potential news items. With the seller apparently gone and promising news flow ahead, things could get much cheerier around here.