RE:RE:I know we are not supposed to mention this, but...
Accountprince wrote: Thanks MM. Nice to have you back posting again. Raises the intellect level here dramatically. Your calculated amount of $1.62 billion equates to over $5.00 per share for DIMI and that excludes the value for SAMI which could add a couple of dollars. So $7.50 per share for Dialco is a real possible value.
Perhaps the delay is initiating the 35 person trial is a function of discussions with potential buyers for Dialco. They may want to complete the trials themselves for a whole host of reasons. Seto did say the approval is a matter of when not if.
That's a good thought AP.
FYI, Mgt. has estimated the'addresable market" for SAMI to be $ 280M, far less than the addressable market for the DIMI. Although highly portable, and easy to use, it's not quite the "game-changer" that DIMI is believed to be.
I would say there are at least 3 possible explanations for the protracted start date for the DIMI Trial
1. The Official explanation. Covid & staff shortages at Clinics. I am inclined to agree with Hmmmmm, that surely with hundreds of thousands of eligible patients, and thousands of dialysis clinics (and posible other interested parties like Pharmacy giants), I find it hard to imagine that there would not be an willingness/eagerness on the part of clinics, patients & practitioners including nurses alike who would be anxious to participate in a paradigm shift (especially an approach that holds the promise of alleviating staff shortages, and that gets around Covid-risk concerns on the part of patients and staff).
2. Mgt. incompetence and or an inability to herd cats. Hard to believe that would be the case, given the two key players seem to have received such strong backing from the BoD as evidenced by the recent out-sized PSU and Option grant. To beleive this explanation, one has to believe that Mgt. is incompetent, the BoD is blind to it, and that key investors are also blind to it.
3. Your explanation. A deliberate delay pending a Dialco deal with the desire for Trial control by the new buyer. Perhaps the ultimate or most likely buyer does not want to risk future/other bidders as the Trial progresses. He who participates in the Trial has the upper hand. I am of the opinion that deals of this magnitude can take anywhere from many months to several years to negotiate. As Dialco progresses through to the final stages of a "when not if" series of events, their leverage goes up considerably during negotiations.
4. Co-terminous Trials. Perhaps there is a feeling that there may be one or a couple fo buyers for the whole kit and kaboodle. Perhaps they want both trials to end, more or less, in the same time frame. In the meantime, this would afford certain peeps with more opportunities to "load up" with cheap options, warrrants, shares/etc. An actual "progressing" Trial or two takes away the element of "cheap"...as the SP might tend to appreciate, as new investors begin to sense an end-date around the corner.
All spectralation, of course.
MM