What a state of affairs. How could the Germans allow themselves to get into this position. It is true that because they have a preeminent reputation for quality, style and performance (e.g.: BMW & Bosch appliances), some of the energy cost increases they will be able to pass on to overseas consumers, but their citizens are going to pay dearly for their folly (holier than thou hubris?).
Anyhow, it continues to bode well for you-know-who (VET). I did a mental run-through on the weekend and despite renewing their Canadian drilling inventory (about 20 years' worth, which I am now coming to understand was the primary reason for LXE purchase, West Pembina is probably fairly developed for tier 1 Cardium with SESK being chewed into steadily -just referencing oil prospects), they should still be close to debt free by mid-2023 despite over $1b in acquisitions since this last Novemeber (6 months).
In that time, they increased their FFO by one third and free cash flow potential (speaking proforma-ly since the 2 major acquisitions haven't closed yet) by approx. 45%.
My WAG is that with the 4 acquisitions (including $75m undeveloped land in the Wyoming Turner Sands (i.e.: more NA oily drilling inventory) and a small bolt-on in Germany they never PRed), we should be looking at FFO over $15/sh if prduct prices remain roughly where they are for the next 8 months. And when Corrib 32% WI uplift closes, in effect Equinor will pay us net dollars to accept ownership of their share (all cash flow is accruing inside the holding vehicle while ownership transfer approval is being processed...and the Irish competition authorities have already sanctioned it).
Capex including LXE build out to 28,000 boe/d is slated to be $500m (~$3/sh.). Debt paydown to $0 is ~$6/sh (one-time, watch out in 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026...).
What will they do with the other $6/sh (2022), $12/sh (2023)...etc. Does anyone think Euro-NG priceswill fall back to <$10/mmbtu in the next 4-5 years?
If coal is being positioned in the confused public's minds as the newest saviour, what does that imply about the likelihood of proposed LNG terminals saving the day? Before they unmothball coal burners and spend massive dollars refurbishing moving ash grates, what does this further imply about the amount of prior (and insufficient) effort that will have been expended to suck as much NG as could be domestically (speaking about Western Europe not just Germany) supplied and from overseas LNG friends before that final measure is actioned???
Can't wait for the AGM, less than one month away, believe it will be +/-April 28th. Hoping strenuously for a dividend announcement.
Regards,
Naamkat