RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:Looks like Yeah my share numbers are old. I used to update them QoQ, but then stopped as they never materially changed. I don't list anything here based on sharecount, but current shares are 168 or so.
The royalties I have are definitely old and using the old run-rate, had a newer value on another sheet but I had formulas frozen...I'll post a new copy of the working sheet with actual live values. Thanks for your comments. I am expecting a number in the high 30's for Q1, roughly a blended 17% of AECO.
I was using annualized rates, and I expect Peyto to be at the far high end of the range given they are balls to the wall. I updated using actual for Q1 and accounting acquisitions. I have their debt reduction at just $268M (after adjusting the royalties error and using $400M for Capex) and using the strip as of today. This obviously assumes they wait until yearend to raise the royalties, which given their history is less than a given. Their debt to ebitda will be about a turn at year end.
The hedging losses I calculated are all back to AECO, as if they sold everything into NGTL with a total book loss of $400M based on today's strip which includes the more recent move up. I have $280M in revenue net of diverisification/hedging in Q1 and $288M in Q2. I have the larger AECO and Malin hedge losses more than offset by the higher revenue from the HH contracts and better spot pricing on the floating AECO/Emerson exposure.
I like that we are so close on Q1 figures, but used completely independent data sources and computation.
houbahop wrote: Allow me to underline some discrepencies with my assumptions, starting with the easy ones:
- Your share outstanding numbers are from 20'Q2
- 21'Q4 royalties were $28.3m
- Capex and acquisition will total close to $152m in 22'Q1.
- Expect a $10m end of year bonus in 22'Q4 (although paid with options or increase share number)
- 21'Q4 revenues after basis and hedging loss was $243m
22'Q1 production is 5% higher than previous quarter and I assume hedged volume average price on Natgas is slightly above hedged price of 21'Q4. I have $275m in revenues after basis and hedging loss for Q1. $250m for Q2 because of lower hedge price of summer months.
I end up with $270m in debt reduction by december 31st vs $350m claimed by DG.
Hope this help.
Houba!
| | Q1 (90) | Q2 (91) | Q3 (92) | Q4 (92) |
| Days per Quarter | 90 | 91 | 92 | 92 |
| | | | | |
| Oil & NGL | 11,275 | 11,550 | 11,825 | 12,100 |
| Gas Production (mcf) | 547,350 | 560,700 | 574,050 | 587,400 |
| % Liquids | 0.11 | 0.11 | 0.11 | 0.11 |
| Total BOE | 102,500 | 105,000 | 107,500 | 110,000 |
| | | | | |
| Undrawn Bank Credit Facility (000s) | $ 650,000 | $ 311,265 | $ 375,881 | $ 453,951 |
| Drawn Bank Credit Facility (000s) | $ 650,000 | $ 638,735 | $ 574,119 | $ 496,049 |
| Senior Unsecured Notes (000s) | $ 415,712 | $ 415,712 | $ 415,712 | $ 415,712 |
| Interest Expense | $ 13,418 | $ 12,666 | $ 12,043 | $ 11,292 |
| | | | | |
| Shares Outstanding | 168,150 | 168,150 | 168,150 | 168,150 |
| Gas Revenue | $ 191,022 | $ 195,520 | $ 211,247 | $ 249,733 |
| Liquids | $ 89,812 | $ 93,025 | $ 96,286 | $ 98,525 |
| | | | | |
| OPEX + Transport | $ 36,531 | $ 37,838 | $ 39,164 | $ 40,075 |
| G&A | $ 2,768 | $ 2,867 | $ 2,967 | $ 3,036 |
| Royalties | $ 39,852 | $ 45,558 | $ 50,289 | $ 54,697 |
| Interest | $ 13,418 | $ 12,666 | $ 12,043 | $ 11,292 |
| | | | | |
| EBITDA | $ 201,683 | $ 202,282 | $ 215,113 | $ 250,451 |
| Funds Flow | $ 188,265 | $ 189,616 | $ 203,070 | $ 239,159 |
| | | | | |
| Dividend | $ 25,000 | $ 25,000 | $ 25,000 | $ 25,000 |
| CAPEX | $ 152,000 | $ 100,000 | $ 100,000 | $ 100,000 |
| | | | | |
| FCF | $ 11,265 | $ 64,616 | $ 78,070 | $ 114,159 |
| Trailing Debt/Ebitda | 2.36 | 1.86 | 1.41 | 1.05 |
| | | | | |
| Hedging Loss | $ (70,297,583) | $ (100,171,757) | $ (119,179,989) | $ (115,875,908) |