quinlash wrote: Personally I always set aside some time to research over a weekend for multiple reasons... firstly because the markets are closed and I can look over stock picks without the pressure of watching shareprices jumping up and down but also because it allows me to set my own price targets. One method I incorporate into that exercise is reverse calculating targets using
Price to Sales Ratios. There is lots of information out there on what this refers to and how it is calculated so I suggest anyone not familiar with it to check it out over the weekend.
Many websites will provide price targets on shares. Some sites are better than others but it is also important to realize that there are quirks on some sites you may not realize exist unless you are familiar with the stock you are trading as well as the formulas and how they apply to shareprice targets.
Some of our long time forum members may recall back in late 2020 there was some chatter on the forum about the HIP-A-WT being valued at 50 cents as reported by the Canadian Warrants website. To me this was an obvious math error with the site and it being tied to the 2020 share consolidation. I had warned many not to use that number as fair value then wrote into Canadian Warrants and pointed out that their site was out of date and needed to be revised, about a week later it was corrected to a much lower value. If you trade warrants be sure to know how you are going to value them for trading if you have no intention of holding them to exercise/convert into shares.
MarketBeat, Yahoo Finance and The Globe and Mail all have price targets on HEXO Shares between $4 and $7 while Royal Bank also shows the upper target of $7 (all in Canadian Dollars). I am trusting these sites to be current as I have reverse calculated the current outstanding shares vs sales figures using the trailing 4 QTR method (The Price to Sales Ratio) then injected the existing Price to Sales Ratio of Tilray and Canopy Growth to see where the Price of HEXO shares would land using these other comparible ratios.
How to Calculate Price to Sales Ratio https://www.investopedia.com/terms/p/price-to-salesratio.asp It is not difficult to do the math above if you setup an Excel Speadsheet and have the current shareprice stored in it's own cell then referenced in your formula. Once you have the sheet setup in this manner you can simply change the current shareprice to a higher number until the Price to Sales ratio of Canopy (or Tilray) appear as the result. Using the Excel Seek Function can make this faster if you like playing around with spreadsheets but simply changing the shareprice manually works and it doesn't take much to hit target ratios.
For the current PS-Ratio and comparible ratio data I am using Ycharts
https://ycharts.com/companies/HEXO.TO/ps_ratio The comparible ratios for other LPs is on the page but also the average PS Ratio of 44 is noted for HEXO as well as the historic max PS-Ratio of 244. Currently we are just over 1 on the PS-Ratio measure so IMHO this exercise is definately worth it.
The max ratio was seen back in 2019 when the hype of Cannabis stocks was at it's highest with Canadian Legalization. No particular ratio is guarenteed but it is worth the effort to know a comparible price as well as other prices in the event that legalization should occur in the near-term.
NOTE: The shares out is the 382 Million number
not the Total Shares Outstanding of 425 Million. Total Revenue is the top line / gross sales figures (not the NET Numbers) and for Canadians using Ycharts you will
need to enter the current shareprice is US Dollars (this is the Ycharts quirk, likely due to it being a US based website) then convert that to Canadian for Canadian targets. You will know you have it setup correctly when your spreadsheet if providing the same PS Ratio as the YCharts site based on most current shareprice.
If you do not have access to MicroSoft Excel on your home computer or laptop you can Google Search "
open source free download microsoft excel" and get a copy for free. It's not 100% exactly the same as the MircoSoft version however the basic math functions are fine. Advanced features and formatting etc is not as well supported in the open source versions.
Remember, targets do not hit overnight, it may take a long time for a price target to hit (if ever) so know your budgets, timelines and risk tolerance before setting a target "too high". Partial sell orders are also an option when you see a price you like so also consider that as part of a trading strategy going into a trade and when exiting.