Russian Gas through Ukraine - likely disruptionGermany and other EU contries will be under terrific pressure in 2022 for the following reasons:
1) Nordstream 2 has not been approved to deliver gas.
Germany is refusing to grant certification until Russia stops agression against Ukraine.
The EU also requires the transmission/distribution of gas is from a 3rd party not under Gazprom (Russian) control.
2) Flows have slowed in Nordstream 1 and their are indications that the flow could stop. I think there are indications that compression is dropping.
3) Oil.com today reported that the Luhask Region in Ukraine (area under Russian/Rebel control) may disrupt current gas flowing through Ukraine and into EU contries. Payment for said gas is also an issue, hence we can expect flows to diminish.
Nato is building up forces alon NATO borders. The UN security council is handcuffed by Russia's veto.. Hence the UN is powerless to act in the conflict. I am expecting that at some point the cost to EU for not getting directly invloved will be to great. I'm expecting populations to protest/riot in EU countries as each economy grinds to a halt and scarcity of energy continues to increase costs.
The final straw for the US/EU/NATO will be either the arrival of food insecurity in the EU or a chemical/tactical nuclear attack in Ukraine (perhaps even outside Ukraine).
Things are far more serious then any of us imagine. We could well be on the brink of a major conflict with Russia.
I hope it doesn't come to that. I would hope that US/NATO would provide cover in the form of a No-Fly zone in Ukraine and provide the Ukrainians with tanks and heavy weapons in order to combat Russia in the Eastern Ukrain. Under no circumstances can Ukraine allow the Russians to take Odessa and the entire coast of the Black Sea.
The Ukrainians risk being encicled by Russian troops in the Donets'k region. The Ukrainians need air support if the are going to expell the Russians from Ukraine. Otherwise the russians will control the entire eastern half of Ukriane... East of the Dnieper River